The White Sox, baseball's biggest surprise, will face the Yankees in a battle of powerful arms

There are games that I think about more than others when I lose. I took a big L in the Spain vs Cape Verde game yesterday. They didn't technically lose, but bettors like me certainly did. They tied even though they were -1200 favorites and didn't even score. I will play a game that will have a winner today and not a draw.

The Chicago White Sox are the biggest surprise of the season. We are almost 50% of the way into the season, and the team is over .500. This was a club that was expected to be among the worst in the league. They signed one big free agent this offseason, and while he's a masher, the rest of the team has stepped up. Their offense numbers are actually very close to the New York Yankees, who have more well-known and stable players.

They also got a good start in today's moneyer, Davis Martin. On the year, Martin is 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He's doing a great job and will likely be considered for the Cy Young Award if he can keep this up. Martin will also likely be the guy most teams call the White Sox about if there is a chance to steal him at the trade deadline. Yankees hitters have done well against Martin in the past, going 12 for 32.

The Yankees are one of the better teams in baseball, but you should watch with extra caution for now. Aaron Judge, an annual MVP candidate, is injured and that has spelled doom for the Yankees. This season, they are 43-27 with a 19-12 home record. The Yankees have gone 7-4 since Judge went down with an injury, so at least he's been holding it so far.

Braden Montgomery of the Chicago White Sox watches his two-run home run in the 10th inning to beat the Atlanta Braves in Chicago on June 9, 2026. (Paul Beaty/AP)

It helps to have guys like Gerrit Cole there to take the ball for them every five games. Cole returned to the team after being injured when Judge went down, and he did very well in his regular games. In his first two games, he went 12.2 innings, allowing six hits and no earned runs.

In his last two starts, he has gone just 9.1 innings and allowed six earned runs. If anything is typical, he'll be closer in his first two games than his last two. The White Sox only have two guys who have faced Cole, but they have plenty of experience, going 7-for-42 against him.

This should be an absolutely beautiful game. He has two strong arms that fight each other. Cole hasn't looked great in his last two games, but that's not too much of a concern, because he's been very good throughout his career. Martin has had a few blips in the game log recently.

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Pitcher Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees pitches against the Chicago Cubs during the second inning of a spring training game at Sloan Park on March 24, 2026 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images) (Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

I'm not on the list of this game. I think we could see more than 7.5 if one of these starters struggles. I also think we could see a ton of zeros given how good both can be. In a game like this, I'll take the White Sox to the fifth. This is about me believing there is good value in Chicago considering who they have on the mound and Cole's current form.