The Cook Political Report swings 5 states to Democrats before the midterms
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As the GOP and Democratic Party seek control of the House during the 2026 midterm election cycle, the Cook Political Report flipped five districts to Democrats, and one to Republicans.
The analysis changes two districts in Ohio in favor of the Democrats.
Ohio's first congressional district, represented by a member of the Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman, we've gone from a toss-up to a heavily-leaning Democrat, according to the report. The district was redrawn last year, “making it a district that would have voted for Donald Trump by 2.5 points in 2024,” according to the report.
The Buckeye State's 13th Congressional District, where Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes, who is seeking re-election, has been changed from a non-faithful Democrat to a Democrat, according to an analysis of the election.
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Detroit voters at the polls inside the Central United Methodist Church on Nov. 5, 2024, in the city of Detroit, Mich. (Sarah Rice/Getty Images)
“In the redistricting deal negotiated by Ohio Republicans and Democrats last year, Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes won clearly. Her current Akron-based district, which voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, was redrawn to shift three points to the left,” according to the Cook Political Report.
New Jersey's 9th Congressional District, represented by Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou, we went from being a waning Democrat to being a Democrat, according to the report. Pou is a member of the left-wing Congressional Progressive Caucus.
Cook's Politics Report noted that 2025 Garden State gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill, the Democrat who won the race, won “the district by nearly 20 points” last year after President Donald Trump “carried it by 1.5 points” in 2024.
“While Pou won't be able to replicate his victory over Sherrill, it's hard not to see him as the clear favorite after the district swings back to Democrats in 2025 — and as an unstable base has caused Republicans to ignore the general election altogether,” the report said.
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Rep.-elect Nellie Pou, DN.J., poses for a photo after joining other members of the 119th Congress for a group photo on the steps of the House of Representatives at the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 15, 2024. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
The Cook Political Report flipped Florida's 27th District from solid Republican to Republican.
Trump endorsed incumbent GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents that district in the Sunshine State, for re-election.
The analysis changed the Pennsylvania 8th Congressional District, represented by GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan, from lean Republican to swing, says “the stock market has been fractious throughout the cycle, giving Democrats a powerful line of attack in a district that's been trending Republican but is playing big this cycle.”
In a statement provided to Fox News Digital on Wednesday, Bresnahan campaign spokesman Chris Pack said, “We are not focused on the disabled people of the political races in Washington, DC whose business model depends on creating the impression of a close race to drive paid registrations.”
“The reality on the ground in Northeast Pennsylvania tells a very different story,” Pack said. “Rob continues to quickly rally union support and post strong fundraising numbers, while Mayor Cognetti is defined by an extremist record that includes supporting amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants, ending maternity leave for new mothers, and calling for police disarmament.”
Trump endorsed Bresnahan for re-election.
TRUMP CABINET MEMBERS WILL CAMPAIGN CABINET MEMBERS, HE HAS NOT ORDERED THEM TO REPRESENT OR SILENCE UNUSUAL SITUATIONS.
Rep. Rob Bresnahan, R-Pa., arrives at an inflation event with US President Donald Trump, not pictured, at the Mount Airy Casino Resort in Mount Pocono, Pa., Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025. (Adam Gray/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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The report highlighted one bright spot for the GOP: Colorado's 3rd District went from likely Republican to solid Republican.
Trump endorsed former GOP Rep. Jeff Hurd, then retracted the endorsement, then endorsed Hurd again.
“We're moving this district from nearly Republican to Solid Republican for now, even if the other Democratic Party gains momentum and could come back on board later in the cycle,” said a Cook Political Report analysis.
Trump is facing a vote on the authorization of underwater activities, which could be a drag on the Republican Party during this year's elections.
