After all the build-up, fear and uncertainty, California's most open and unpredictable gubernatorial primary in decades appears to have ended in the most consistent and predictable ways.
California has never elected a female governor. That won't change in November.
Voters have never cared much about rich people trying to buy highly elected government office. They still haven't.
California voters generally like experience more than youth, and they like comfort and boring over razzle and glitz. It continues to do so.
And for all the speculation about one political party or another being shut out of Tuesday's game, November's contest could turn out to be Democratic vs. Republican.
Here are five takeaways from a gubernatorial race that was stagnant and drowsy until, suddenly, it was.
Flashback!
Three months ago, Xavier Becerra appeared to be out of sorts — along with a group of other weak candidates — conspicuously excluded from a scheduled interview at USC. Today, the Democrat appeared to be punching his ticket in November.
The obvious parallels with another major underdog, Gray Davis, who also came a long way to win the last gubernatorial primary capture this level of uncertainty and doubt. That happened in 1998.
Like Davis, Becerra has a political personality that could be sold as a sleeping aid. No one will ever mistake them for, say, Arnold Schwarzenegger. But Becerra's poise proved to be the perfect antidote following the emergence of Eric Swalwell's scarred campaign while presenting a welcome contrast to the relentless S.shut up and Drang from Washington, DC
Despite California's good reputation (driven mostly by outsiders), the state has elected more governors like Davis and Becerra than Schwarzenegger and Ronald Reagan. In fact, with the exception of Schwarzenegger, who won an unprecedented recall campaign, every candidate since Reagan successfully ran for state office at least once before being elected governor.
Becerra was elected attorney general before heading to Washington to join the Biden administration; his election provided aging voters with a safe harbor amid the Trump storm.
Cha-ching!
There are things money can't buy, Tom $teyer – er, Steyer – just discovered.
The hedge fund billionaire turned Democratic activist has sunk more than $215 million — a record — into his gubernatorial bid, after spending nearly $350 million in a failed 2020 presidential bid.
With about 60% of the votes counted, he was running an unpopular third and hoping that the increase in votes still to be counted would put him in the top two.
Part a a billion dollars, which makes it a good value, “Meh.”
California has a long history of rejecting candidates for governor and US Senate — a pattern that goes back more than half a century. Given this poor track record, Steyer will enter the runoff as an underdog, even though there are millions he's willing to spend.
“These are filthy rich people who don't have to deal with the kind of financial problems that people have in their daily lives that they feel relatable to,” said Garry South, who ran Davis' successful 1998 campaign against Steyer's free-lancer of the day, former airline executive Al Checchi.
Given Steyer's terrible campaign, beleaguered voters can count on many months of brutality on the radio, on their computers and in their mailboxes.
Only the TV station executives and political consultants handing out Steyer's huge checks will be happy.
A self-fulfilling prophecy
It had never happened. But the prospect that Democrats would be shut out of the November ruff was enough to ensure that this scenario would not happen in this blue state.
With a number of Democrats running and two serious Republican contenders, Democratic allies fear their fractured vote will allow the GOP to hold both of the top two spots on Tuesday.
Much of the strangeness has been consumed by the polls that are said to show Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco at the top of the field. But no candidate has ever received more than 20% support; for all the heavy breathing, the race was always equal for many players.
However, fearing the worst, voters who normally couldn't pronounce “elementary school” from a jungle gym started thinking like blue-eyed political strategists. Democrats, in particular, are withholding their votes longer than usual, waiting to see which candidate emerges as the strongest in the end.
“The decision this time was not just political insiders, but all the principles felt that there could be two Republicans,” said Paul Mitchell, a Sacramento-based political data expert who created a popular online tool that breaks down various election scenarios. They chat with friends and families.
In the end, the race among Democrats became less of a contest than a self-fulfilling prophecy. Becerra was seen as a candidate with a good chance to advance to November, so many voters flocked his way – ensuring that he would advance to November.
Now he is waiting to see if his opponent will be Hilton or Steyer.
Sacramento is still a boy's team
More than 30 states have elected female governors. A few have done it multiple times. But in January, California — which sees itself as oh-so-cuting oh-so-cuting something oh-so-much — will add the 41st in the state's unbroken line of male governors.
Things might have been different if Kamala Harris had entered the competition. The former vice president, US senator and California attorney general would be the odds-on favorite to close that gender gap. When she chose not to run, there were still a few women running. But Toni Atkins and Betty Yee eventually fell by the wayside, leaving only Katie Porter.
The former Orange County congresswoman and whiteboard wizard was making a second bid for state office after a failed 2024 bid for the U.S. Senate. Given his wide name recognition and national fundraising base, Porter started out as one of the frontrunners for the presidency. But an unnecessarily inflammatory TV interview and a leaked video showing him insulting one of his aides played into lingering questions about Porter's temper and gentleness.
Is it wrong? Maybe.
“There are expectations for a woman's appointment” that are different from those of a male candidate, said Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at USC. Being strong in a man can be seen as flattering or insulting in a woman. Acting with authority can appear—at least to some observers—as oppressive.
“The female version of the leader should still at least be female,” Romero said. “That's what our society expects. So you have to be tough, but do it with a smile.”
Obviously, there are two. There is also apparently a different standard for the ruler's position. California, after all, was the first state in history to send two women to serve simultaneously in the US Senate and is home to the first female speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco.
But in Sacramento, inside the governor's mansion, California's highest glass ceiling remains intact.
Innovation will not be granted
Last fall, over a plate of enchiladas in downtown San José, Mayor Matt Mahan made a strong decision to run for governor.
“I have a very good marriage,” Mahan said at the time. “I have two wonderful children. I loved working in the private sector. I have many great friends … I really want to make our city better, and I love the job.”
He should have stuck to those words.
Instead, Mahan and his wealthy Silicon Valley backers spoke for themselves in a hasty and premature campaign that was never remotely competitive. Investors may think they are getting in on the ground floor of the next Amazon. Instead, Mahan's choice was like Pets.com, the famous e-commerce flop that fueled the careless bubble of the dot.com bubble.
But it would be equally premature to write off Mahan.
Decades ago, another young big-city mayor ran an ill-conceived campaign for governor, finished fourth and failed to garner double-digit support. That, however, did not hurt Pete Wilson politically. Four years later, he was elected to the US Senate en route to two terms as governor of California.
At 43, Mahan has a long road ahead and plenty of political power. His time may come.
