Shane Bieber's split for the mighty Rays makes the Toronto Blue Jays a smart MLB top 5 bet
Winning can cure basically any frustration you have. The past few days have made me angry at how my baseball games have been ending. It wasn't all bad; I broke up on Monday, and I won the only MLB game I had yesterday. Tuesday's look wasn't great, and I've had bad luck in a few other games I've released recently. I had a nice, easy 8-0 win over the Washington Nationals yesterday, and I'm hoping that today's game will be another sweat-free contest.
The Tampa Bay Rays are among the best teams in baseball, and I think most would not have expected this to be the case. It's interesting to see how this team has done it all, given that it's not loaded with big names, and has never had one of the highest salaries. I always wonder why other teams – big and small market – don't take some of the lessons from it and apply it to their franchise.
I think that not everyone can repeat everything successfully, but even if the radiation does, it repeats it seems every year.
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Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Ian Seymour pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the second inning at Fenway Park in Boston, Mass., on July 18, 2026. (Photos by Eric Canha/Imagn)
Today, the Rays are sending Ian Seymour to the mound. Most teams have pitchers in their rotation who bounce between the bullpen and rotation. The Rays often use “openers” in games, but Seymour appears to be in between the opening and the stretch zone. He has only seven starts on the season, and you can expect him to throw five innings and give up three runs.
He faced the Toronto Blue Jays in a relief role this season, making four appearances and allowing two earned runs in four innings of work. Overall, the Blue Jays hitters did well against him, going 14-for-38.
Toronto is not one of the best teams in baseball. If anything, they are among the most disappointing teams in baseball. After giving the Los Angeles Dodgers all they could handle last year, expectations were high. Unfortunately, they haven't come close to living up to expectations and are 10 games under .500.
I highly doubt they will blow up the team, but they can trade a few pieces. The most glaring issue on the team is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is hitting .256 (not bad), but only has six homers on the year. He had nine in 2020, when they played 60 games, and 15 in 2019, his rookie season, when he played just 123 games.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays points to the skybox after hitting a home run against the Baltimore Orioles in the second inning of a baseball game Sunday, Sept. 12, 2021, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)
It's not as if their pitching has been a shining star, either. They have had trouble on the mound, and that has exacerbated the offensive problems. Today, they brought in Shane Bieber, who is already 1-1 this season with a 5.70 ERA and 1.73 WHIP.
Bieber was one of the best arms in the game, and he's only 31 years old, so I feel like there's plenty of time for him to regain form. He has also shown flashes of it, including his most recent outing where he went six scoreless innings, allowing three hits, two walks, and striking out six. Rays hitters are hitting just .172 off Bieber this season.
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Looking at the value of this game, I want to say that the over is the smart choice, but I can make a compelling case for the under.
I won't touch on the context, but brief notes on it: Bieber has played better at home this season, but it's only his third start, so it's a small sample size. He has only one game (of five) in which he did not allow a run. Seymour is likely to allow more runs if he lets him go through the lineup twice. The Rays bullpen is better than Toronto's, so you have to wonder how long Seymour will be gone.
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Shane Bieber throws a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at the Rogers Center in Toronto on July 18, 2026. (Photos by Nick Turchiaro/Imagn)
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For those reasons, I avoid the sum. Instead, I want to take the Blue Jays in five innings. I think Toronto should get a good shot at knocking on Seymour. I also think Bieber has shown good success against Rays hitters. I gave it to Toronto in five innings.
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