RKLB Stock Falls 46%, but NASA Deal Signals Solid Footing

Rocket Lab NASDAQ: RKLB you've had a brutal few weeks. After hitting a 52-week high of $151 in May, the stock bounced back hard, closing at $80.69 on June 25, down nearly 46% from that price. We have now broken below the key psychological and technical level of $100 which served as support on the rise, leaving investors wondering where the bleeding will stop.

In that background came an important piece of news this week: NASA has chosen Rocket Lab for three dedicated Electron launches. The question is whether that catalyst arrives at the right time to steady the ship.

NASA Contract Shows Reliability for Launch of Rocket Lab

NASA has chosen Rocket Lab to provide three dedicated Electron launches to support two Sun-Earth science missions, PolSIR and TSIS-2, starting in early 2027. The selection is a logical confirmation of Electron's reliability and Rocket Lab's position as a reliable partner for the government's high-value scientific mission launch. PolSIR will study ice clouds in the tropics to improve climate modelling, while TSIS-2 will measure the Sun's energy output and its impact on Earth's climate. This is exactly the type of dedicated, precision mission built for the Electron, and winning it solidifies Rocket Lab's position as the smallest launch provider for NASA's science portfolio.

It also speaks to the broader strength of the business, which has not changed despite the share price decline. Rocket Lab continues to win contracts for all commercial, civil, and national security customers at a steady clip, and this selection by NASA adds to an already record backlog. This award coincides with the news that the company set a record for responding to security agencies, which also emphasized the intensity of work behind the scenes.

Rocket Lab's Technical Image Looks More Cautious

The chart, however, tells a more cautious story at the moment. The stock is down about 46% from its 52-week high and, more importantly, it has broken below the all-important $100 level that served as support earlier. That disruption shifts the focus to the next big line in the bulls' sand: the 200-day simple moving average, which sits around $75. That level represents the last important technical base before the long-term upside is in real question.

How the stock behaves in that area in the coming sessions will tell. A bounce from or near the 200-day SMA may mark a lower high and a base from which the stock is trying to recover. A decisive break below will be a very concerning signal.

Rocket Lab's Selloff Shows Cycles, Not Weak Fundamentals

It is worth understanding that the decline was largely caused by factors outside of Rocket Lab's own operations. SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX The IPO, which began on June 12, has caused a wave of profit-taking and spiraling across the space sector after entering a powerful event. Rocket Lab, which has had one of the most impressive surges to its lineup, has also been consistent in its reduction.

More weakness in high-beta names amid an AI-driven market and uncertainty added pressure. None of this, however, indicates bad or deteriorating fundamentals for the company, which remain as strong as ever, with record Q1 revenue of $200.35 million, up 63% year-over-year, a record, and Neutron on track for the first time this year.

Is NASA's Catalyst Rocket Lab Coming at the Right Time?

A single contract, however meaningful, is unlikely to reverse a 46% decline on its own. But time is more important than size. NASA's selection is a reminder, coming at a time when sentiment is at its weakest, that the core business is still operating at a high level and earning the trust of the world's most demanding customers. That kind of fundamental strengthening can help stabilize a stock that has been driven by sentiment and volatility rather than anything the company has done wrong.

Analysts remain bearish on the company as a whole. The consensus estimate among 21 analysts is Average Buy, with a price target of $102.76, implying a more than 20% upside from current levels. For investors, the setup now hinges on that $75 area. If the 200-day SMA holds and the ongoing drumbeat of the contract wins, like this NASA pick, continues, the bulls can still find their footing. If not, more patience may be required. Either way, the business behind the stock remains strong, even as the chart is working through one of its sharpest corrections in more than a year.

Before you consider Rocket Lab, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat tracks Wall Street's top and most effective research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients every day. MarketBeat identified five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on… and Rocket Lab wasn't on the list.

Although Rocket Lab currently has an Average Buy rating among analysts, top analysts believe these five stocks are the best.

View Five Stocks Here

Want to capitalize on the electric car mega-trend? Click the link to see our list of which EV stocks are showing the most long-term potential.

Get This Free Report

Do you like this article? Share with your colleagues.

The link is copied to the clipboard.