Marco Rubio is narrowing the gap with Vance in the New Hampshire 2028 election

A new poll from New Hampshire, a state that has held a Republican presidential primary for over a century, is the latest to show Secretary of State Marco Rubio gaining ground for the presumptive 2028 GOP nomination with Vice President JD Vance.

Vance stands at 36% support among GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, while Rubio is at 26%, according to the University of New Hampshire (UNH) Granite State Poll released this week.

That's a big change from the previous UNH 2028 presidential poll, conducted in February, which showed Vance leading Rubio 53% to 7%.

Vance has long been considered the heir apparent to President Donald Trump and his MAGA and America First base. While Vance remains the presumptive frontrunner, Rubio has narrowed the gap in national polls and polls in key early voting states ahead of a race that isn't expected to begin in earnest until after the fall midterms.

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Rubio's rise to the 2028 election this year comes amid an increase in his responsibilities and public profile, including his involvement in US operations in Venezuela and the ongoing war with Iran.

Rubio, a former senator from Florida who was one of more than a dozen Republican contenders who ran and lost to Trump in the tumultuous 2016 presidential race, came within seconds of Vance earlier this year in the hotly contested 2028 presidential nomination at the annual conference of the Conservative Political Action Conference, better known by its party.

Sen. Kentucky's Rand Paul, who ran in 2016 and is considering another bid, came in a distant third at 8% in the new UNH survey, along with former ambassador and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, Trump's 2024 runner-up.

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Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., who failed to win the 2016 GOP presidential nomination, is seen as a potential contender in 2028. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Gov. Florida's Ron DeSantis, who also filed for the 2024 nomination, received 6% support, with everyone else polling at 4% or less.

“There's no one else in the conversation other than these two, so this survey makes sense,” New Hampshire-based Republican consultant David Carney, a veteran of multiple presidential campaigns, told Fox News Digital as he referred to Vance and Rubio.

The latest polls and straw poll results are fodder for what some in the Republican Party see as an emerging rivalry between Rubio and Vance, who describe each other as friends.

Fueling Rubio's rise is Trump, who has praised his secretary of state.

The president earlier this year announced that Rubio would go down as “the greatest secretary of state in history.”

Trump also proposed a Vance-Rubio ticket — calling it “unstoppable” — but did not say who should be at the top of the ticket.

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Vice President JD Vance, left, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, at a White House meeting, March 17, 2026 in Washington DC. (Photographer: Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

But the president said last year that Vance was “possible” as his successor. “In all fairness, he is the vice president,” Trump added.

While Vance was downcast when asked about 2028, he has built a team of political advisers who, if he runs as expected, will quickly build a presidential campaign.

Rubio, who travels the world as part of his job requirements, does not have the same group of political aides. And Rubio has said he will support Vance if the vice president launches a 2028 campaign.

Regardless, Republican sources confirmed to Fox News earlier this year that a group of GOP donors supporting the secretary of state are quietly exploring ways to boost Rubio's political profile.

That doesn't go down well with others in the presidential race.

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“Vice President Vance is the future of the Republican Party and Marco Rubio is one of his closest friends in the administration,” a Trump campaign official told Fox News Digital earlier this year.

“The divisive stories of some sponsors who are trying to create chaos are not helpful,” emphasized the woman, who asked not to be identified in order to speak freely.

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Vice President JD Vance, accompanied by his son Vivek, and Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, poses for a photo with members of the Iowa Army and Air National Guard at Des Moines International Airport in Des Moines, Iowa, Tuesday, May 5, 2026. (Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo)

Vance also weighed in, telling Fox News' Martha MacCallum earlier this year that “Marco is my closest friend in the administration.”

And the vice president, in his interview with Fox News “The Story,” added, “I think it's very interesting that the media wants to create this conflict where there is no conflict.”

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Trump will have a major impact on the 2028 GOP nomination race to succeed him. The endorsement of the president will give great power to whoever supports him.

But a longtime Republican expert, who asked not to be named to speak freely, offered a warning to the vice president: “Vance is in the catbird seat until others go wrong and Trump will blame him … I can't see Vance walking this tightrope for two years without angering Trump.”