July 23, Freeport-McMoRan NYSE: FCX presented an earnings report made by two forces that will explain how investors read the quarter.
Copper and gold prices sat at historic highs, suggesting a glut across the board. The report also revealed that the company continues to move towards full production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The mine was closed in 2025 following a mining accident that shut down most of the company's production.
Freeport-McMoRan Today
Freeport-McMoRan
From 09:04 AM in Mpumalanga
- 52 week interval
- $35.15
▼
$72.28
- Dividend Yield
- 0.47%
- The P/E ratio
- 33.76
- Target Value
- $69.04
However, FCX was lower after the report.
This could be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation. The stock rose nearly 15% from July 17th until the market closed on July 22nd.
That suggests that a lot of good news was priced into the report, which, by the numbers, was good but probably not enough to justify FCX's 52-week high in the short term.
But in the long run, there are two important factors to consider in analyzing Freeport-McMoRan's earnings.
Freeport Earnings Get a Boost from Higher Copper and Gold Prices
The headline numbers for the second quarter of 2026 show why investors have been pushing FCX higher ahead of earnings. Freeport-McMoRan posted second-quarter revenue of $984 million, or 68 cents per share, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 74 cents after accounting for one-time costs associated with the Grasberg incident. Revenue reached $7 billion, and the company generated $2 billion in operating income for the quarter.
The real issue was the price:
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The company earned an average of $6.17 per pound of copper in the quarter, up nearly 36% from $4.54 a year ago.
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Gold recovery fell to $4,520 per ounce from $3,291, a year-on-year (YOY) gain of about 37%.
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Molybdenum, often considered later in Freeport's case, also strengthened reasonably, realizing $28.75 per pound compared to $21.10 a year ago.
Copper sales volumes were down significantly year-on-year (710 million pounds versus 1.0 billion), a direct result of Grasberg's divisional relaunch. In other words, FCX is making more money while selling less copper. That volatility won't repeat itself once Grasberg's volumes normalize, which is worth keeping in mind when projecting growth rates going forward.
Grasberg Mine Ramp-Up Strengthens Freeport's Long-Term Outlook
Another part of the bull case is removing risk, not just adding value. Freeport confirmed that the Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up met expectations in the second quarter, with mining rates increasing from 34,000 tonnes per day in April to 69,000 tonnes per day in June. Management now expects PTFI's production capacity to reach approximately 65% in the second quarter of 2026, 80% in mid-2027, and near full capacity by the end of 2027.
That timeline also explains why unit costs in Indonesia remain negative. PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) reported a net unit credit of 81 cents per pound of copper in the quarter, meaning gold credits from production exceeded production costs. As rates recover, that credit flexibility should provide continuity to the pooled margins even if copper prices fall to current levels.
Freeport Maintains Strong Balance Sheet While Returning Great Capital
Freeport also used the quarter to reinforce its strategic direction. The company returned $600 million to shareholders in the first quarter of 2026, including $200 million in share repurchases, and separately increased its ownership stake in the Cerro Verde mine to 55.66% for approximately $107 million.
Total debt stands at only $2.1 billion (excluding downstream processing debt), well below the $3–$4 billion target. That balance sheet flexibility is part of why analysts were comfortable raising their price target as the stock hit new highs. The company shows its ability to keep financing both shareholder benefits and its growth pipeline (Baghdad, El Abra, Kucing Liar) without reducing its investment grade ratio.
Is the Post-Earnings Pullback a Buying Opportunity?
Turning to the technical picture, FCX spent most of 2025 rallying in the low $40s before holding steady since December, eventually heading to a 52-week high near $72 in June. The pullback since then, including a post-recovery drop to around $63, has brought shares back to the 50-day moving average (around $64) and the lower end of the recent trading range, without breaking the broader rally.
Notably, the 200-day moving average has been steadily rising since falling to around $40 late last year, now sitting around $56—a sign that the medium-term trend is still bullish even after the earnings slump. Volume on the low day was increased but not significantly exceeded compared to the last session, which is consistent with profit taking after a higher rise rather than a fundamental retesting of the story.
Is Freeport-McMoRan Stock Still a Buy After Earnings?
One problem with FCX's stock prices is that the company's strong growth is currently out of whack for two reasons. First, copper and gold prices are at historic highs. Second, the company is now reporting production from its closed Grasberg mine. That distorts the year-to-year estimates.
Both variables are likely to support strong earnings and free cash flow growth, two of the leading predictors of stock price growth. But most discounted cash flow models suggest more modest growth.
That said, the structural case for copper demand remains. The price is starting to follow that demand. It is the same with gold.
It will take another earnings report or two to see if that demand is worth FCX. Currently, the stock is trading in a defined range. But the rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages indicate that investors were willing to let the stock grind higher.
Leading up to the report, analysts have raised their price targets for FCX, targeting highs of $80. With the Grasberg project headed for full production by the end of 2027, the stock's current value could create an attractive entry point.
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