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As the Trump administration weighs diplomacy and military pressure against Iran, the political clock is ticking at home.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz – the world's largest oil stop since the conflict with Iran because of the Iranian invasion – was reopened immediately, it could take months for oil to flow due to problems including blocked tanks, swollen storage facilities and damaged oil infrastructure, according to Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith, who is pushing for the closing of the global energy market on November 3.
“Then it will take until the fourth quarter of the year for things to return to normal,” said Smith.
The question facing Republicans is whether the economic consequences of the conflict will outweigh the conflict itself. While the White House continues to pursue a diplomatic solution with Iran, strategists and energy analysts say disruptions in global energy markets could continue long after any deal is reached, leaving voters with months of high costs heading into midterms.
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The economic consequences are already visible.
The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon Thursday, according to AAA, up from $3.144 a year ago — an increase of nearly 35%.
Moody's Analytics estimates that the conflict has cost American households nearly $100 billion over the past three months, or about $750 per household, due to higher fuel costs, transportation and related costs.
For others, the conflict has gone on long enough to create lasting political consequences.
“There's a timeline and we've passed it,” GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital.
The White House dismissed the idea that the conflict could be a long-term political charge, arguing that any economic disruption would be temporary.
“President Trump remains focused on keeping Americans safe, reducing costs for working families, and making our country greater than ever,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital. “The President and his energy team are anticipating short-term market disruptions, speaking openly to the American people, and implementing an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts.”
Rogers said that Trump “will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon” and said that “if the President successfully ends this conflict, the price of oil will go down for years and the world's energy markets will be more stable in the long run.”
Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened quickly, it could take months for oil flow to return due to bottlenecks. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)
“We were promised that this would be a short surgery, and we were told over and over again that it would all be over in 24-48 hours,” he continued. “It's not a blip anymore.”
Others see a small window left.
“I think it really needs to be resolved on the Fourth of July,” Republican strategist John Feehery told Fox News Digital. “If it's not resolved by the Fourth of July, I don't think the economy will have time to continue at all levels.”
Feehery's July 4 benchmark coincides with a time when the White House hopes to divert public attention from the start of America's 250th anniversary celebrations.
The administration has alternated between signaling that a deal is close and warning that military action is still possible. Recently, Trump expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they were “so boring” and that he “couldn't care less” if the talks broke down because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would “be dropping like a rock” in the near future and maintained that a deal was still possible.
But regardless of how the talks end, strategists say economic relief must come soon if Republicans hope to avoid carrying the dispute into the midterms.
Republicans are entering the middle of terms that protect a majority in the House that many analysts see as the risk of a traditional backsliding of the president's party. The state of the Senate is very much in favor of the Republicans, although several races in states such as North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Texas are expected to be closely watched.
Feehery argued that the political impact of the conflict will ultimately have less to do with uranium reserves, enrichment levels or the details of any final deal than with whether voters feel economically secure.
According to AAA, the national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.241 per gallon on Thursday, up from $3.144 a year ago – an increase of nearly 35%. (Chona Kasinger/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“They don't care about that,” Feehery said when asked about the scope of a potential deal. “In the minds of voters, they are not worried about distant issues. They are worried about the domestic economy.”
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“George HW Bush kicked Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait and his approval ratings were around 91%, and he lost the next election,” Feehery said.
Even if a technological breakthrough comes in the coming weeks, the American people may not see immediate relief.
Smith said the US has been removed from the worst disruptions due to its domestic production, but the country is increasingly serving as an energy supplier to regions cut off from the Middle East flow.
Recently, Trump expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations, saying they were “so boring” and that he “couldn't care less” if the talks broke down because Iran was taking too long, while also predicting that oil prices would “be dropping like a rock” in the near future and maintained that a deal was still possible. (AP Photo/Paul Sancia, File)
“It's possible that we're going to see higher prices coming into the US because, you know, we're getting to the deficit issue,” Smith said.
As Asian countries take up lost Middle Eastern territory and Europe seeks alternative sources of jet fuel, overseas buyers are increasingly competing with American energy exports, he said.
“Countries outside the US are charging US prices,” Smith said.
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For Republicans, the concern that the economic collapse may outpace the conflict itself.
“Even if all this were to end tomorrow, the prices will not quickly return to normal and if it does, the voters will not get a refund of the high debts they have already paid,” said Heye.
