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Framber Valdez faces David Peterson with the under pick at Wrigley Field

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Yesterday I brought a loss to the Twins as I was backing the wrong horse in the race, obviously. The usually reliable Joe Ryan looked terrible and allowed a bunch of runs early. I actually prefer losing this way because I don't have to pay attention to it. It wasn't a good read, and I can start looking at the next day of games. That was a game between two AL Central teams; I will try each other from the division as the Tigers face the Cubs.

The Detroit Tigers are still under .500, but no one in the division has run away with a lead, so there's still a chance they can turn it around. You don't need to give them a big reminder of how August and September can change the division race. They were heavy favorites last year to win this division, and the Rangers had an incredible time stealing the division. The Tigers got the last laugh as they won the final. Still, this team needs a jolt somehow, and all the talk around is whether or not Tarik Skubal will be traded.

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – MAY 05: Framber Valdez #59 of the Detroit Tigers throws a pitch in the third inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Comerica Park on May 05, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images) ((Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images))

During the offseason, they knew they would have to come to a decision about Skubal, and sign Framber Valdez, the best available starter, to soften the blow of losing Skubal. On the year, Valdez is 5-6 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Those numbers aren't bad, but they're not the highest quality circuit, either. Valdez did a great job of keeping the ball down, overall. He has 178 ground balls compared to 158 fly balls, and that's not counting his strikeouts. Cubs hitters didn't fare well against Valdez, going just 4-for-32 against him.

The Chicago Cubs are essentially in the same spot they were last season. They've been solid as a team, but they still look up to the Milwaukee Brewers. They are one of the streakiest clubs in baseball, and if their offense starts to falter, they will really struggle. This is because the construction workers seem to be held together with duct tape and Band-Aids. They made a few trades to get arms that could help them throughout the year, but no one really wants to go into the postseason with them.

June 27, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher David Peterson (19) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Photos by Michael McLoone-Imagn

June 27, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher David Peterson (19) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field. (Photos by Michael McLoone-Imagn)

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One of those sales they made was with the one who started today, David Peterson. His numbers are terrible, but the Cubs think they can flip him or see something in him that makes them think it's a worthwhile investment. He is 4-7 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.64 ERA. He was much better in his last outing for them than his first. Against the Orioles, he went five innings and allowed two hits and one earned run. Against the Cardinals, he allowed 10 earned runs on nine hits over 3.2 innings. The Tigers are 3-for-8 against him.

Wrigley Field is packed with fans during a baseball game in Chicago

Wrigley Field in Chicago is hosting a game between the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets on April 17, 2026. (Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)

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Some ballparks have a bigger impact on betting than others. When the wind comes out of Wrigley Field, the ball comes out, and it seems like the total can't be high enough. Tonight, the wind will be blowing in. Peterson is a fly ball player, but there shouldn't be too much damage to him, considering the wind can knock things over. Valdez is a ground ball hitter. I think this game will go under 8.5 tonight due to both pitchers being winded. The Tigers aren't a huge offensive force to begin with either. Give me less.

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