Palantir Technologies NASDAQ: PLTR decrease by about 30% by 2026.
But over the past 30 days, PLTR is up about 5%, while other AI stocks have moved sharply in either direction.
Palantir Technologies Today
Palantir Technologies
As of 07/24/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
- 52 week interval
- $106.37
▼
$207.52
- The P/E ratio
- 138.11
- Target Value
- $189.88
Another account is that this is just Palantir growing in size. Even if it slides into 2026, PLTR still trades at more than 100x forward earnings and has a trailing price-to-sales (P/S) of about 65x.
However, while inflation and conflict in the Middle East are causing volatility throughout the AI industry, Palantir has been relatively unaffected. That may be due to its focus on government agencies. The company's government and critical infrastructure customer base position it to maintain growth even if the economy slows down.
The question on many investors' minds is what's next. Palantir reports its Q2 2026 earnings on Aug. 3. If history is any guide, it will be a solid report. But in the last few earnings reports, “strong” has not been enough to lift the stock price.
However, Palantir's consistently impressive results are an unstoppable force pushing the reluctant stock price higher. Another powerful report could change that equation.
Why Wall Street Is Ending Up Under Palantir Stock
Palantir bears typically rely on conservative cash flow (DCF) models, which typically assume 20% to 30% annual growth in free cash flow and earnings per share (EPS). That may be the standard for a growing software company, but bulls say it's far below Palantir's recently reported growth.
Q1 2026 adjusted free cash flow reached $925 million, up 150% year over year. Adjusted EPS came in at 33 cents, up nearly 150%. Those growth rates are five to seven times higher than conservative models assume.
Now add CEO Alex Karp's prediction. He told CNBC that Palantir will generate $15 billion to $18 billion in free cash flow within two years. That is not a mistake. It's the number that drives this whole debate.
Traditional measurement models exist for a reason. Protect yourself from overpaying due to hype. But they're also thinking about a direct retreat, and Palantir isn't back yet.
A growth assumption of 20% to 30% yields a rough estimate of fair value. Critics like Michael Burry have used that logic to argue that Palantir's trading is more than just cash flow.
The problem is the actual numbers. Fiscal year (FY) 2025 free cash flow was $2.27 billion. Karp's two-year target of $15 billion to $18 billion implies a roughly 560% to 690% gain over that period.
That's not a modest beat over the counter assumption. It is a completely different growing area. If Karp is objectively correct, every DCF model built on 20-30% growth grossly underestimates the fair value.
Palantir's Free Cash Flow Growth Supports Bull Case
Karp's predictions have a tendency to be accurate. By 2022, he was targeting $4.5 billion in revenue by 2025. The real money for 2025 reached $4.475 billion, it is actually visible.
That history is relevant to the current situation. Karp is not a CEO known for wild promises that evaporate. His free cash flow goal of $15 billion to $18 billion is worthy of scrutiny, not dismissal.
Q1 2026 results support the trajectory. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance now sits at $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion, representing 71% growth. US retail revenue guidance calls for at least 120% growth.
Full-year adjusted free cash flow guidance rose to $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion. That's more than what the 20-30% growth model will do this year alone.
Palantir Stock Tests Key Support Ahead of Earnings
Technically, Palantir looks like an inferior stock. Shares are trading at $120, well below the 200-day moving average near $154. The stock rose above $200 last November, then entered the first quarter of 2026. We have since stabilized, but the decline on July 22 indicates that PLTR is facing selling pressure.
Palantir Technologies Inc price chart. (PLTR) for Saturday, July 25, 2026
That scope-bound action shows a well-balanced division. Bulls see the company outperforming all successive valuation models. Bears see a stock with a perfect price that has yet to be delivered.
Will Palantir's Earnings Finally Resolve the Valuation Debate?
This isn't really a matter of whether Palantir is worth it. By traditional metrics, it obviously is. Forward IP/S sits around 40x, and skeptics aren't right to flag that.
The real question is which growth mindset to trust. The 20-30% model produces a fair value of one. Actual effects running at 150%+ produce something very different.
Karp's free cash flow target of $15-18 billion is one number that could settle this dispute anyway. If Palantir is close to that path in two years, today's valuation debate seems premature.
Otherwise, conservative models of bears were always correct. Either way, free cash flow will be one of the most important metrics to track every quarter between now and then.
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