World Cup kick-off: Favourites, dark horses and other things to know

It's now less than 48 hours from the start of the World Cup, which kicks off Thursday at 3 p.m. ET with Mexico facing South Africa at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, followed by a nightcap between South Korea and Czechia in Guadalajara.
Canada's first co-host game is Friday at 3 p.m. ET against Bosnia and Herzegovina in Toronto – the first men's World Cup game ever held on Canadian soil. Later that evening, the United States senior manager will face Paraguay in Los Angeles.
After that, soccer fans will be treated to at least three games a day, and up to six, as the group stage is played over the next two weeks, with kick-off times from noon ET to midnight ET in the three North American host countries.
To help you prepare for the world's most famous sporting event, here are the basics you need to know about the 2026 World Cup.
This is the biggest World Cup ever.
After launching in 1930 with just 13 countries, the tournament has grown to 48 – a 50 percent increase from the 32 that played in the previous World Cup in 2022 in Qatar.
As has been the case for decades, the teams are divided into four groups through round-robin play. But, unlike the 32-team format, where only the top two from each team advanced to the single-elimination play-offs, this time the best eight teams from third place 12 teams will continue as the knockout stage doubles from 16 to 32 teams. That, along with the influx of lower-ranked teams to fill the expanded field, should make it easier for the top nations to advance, but could dampen some of the drama in the group stage.
In this episode of Soccer North, we analyze Canada's upcoming World Cup match against Bosnia and Herzegovina and discuss what Jesse Marsch and the Canadian men's national team need to accomplish before the tournament begins. Also, Canadian star Olivia Smith joins the show to reflect on her historic debut season with Arsenal.
This is also the first World Cup to be played in three countries. The US has hosted 78 of 104 games (75 percent) in 11 different cities, while Canada and Mexico have 13 games each. The host cities in Canada are Vancouver and Toronto, who will host five games each in the group stage and one in the round of 32, while Vancouver also gets a game in the round of 16. Everything from the quarterfinals onward takes place in the US, culminating in the final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium, home of the NFL's New York Giants and Jets.
Some new rules are also being introduced.
As a reminder, a win in the group stage is worth three points, a draw is worth one and a loss is worth nothing. In previous World Cup competitions, if two or more teams finished with the same points, their placing was determined by their goal difference in their three group matches. But, new this year, the first tiebreaker is now head-to-head, followed by head-to-head goal difference, then head-to-head goals.
If that doesn't resolve the tie, it goes to overall goal difference, then total goals, then “fair play” points (teams are held for each yellow or red card they receive). The same criteria is used to rank the third-placed teams to advance to the knockout stage.
Another notable change is that, regardless of the temperature, each game will include three-minute “hydration breaks” to allow players to grab a drink — and broadcasters to sell more ads. These will be called approximately in the middle of each section.
There is no clear favorite.
The betting markets are a useful tool for identifying the top contenders, and currently suggest that Spain and France are the favourites. But La Roja (reigning European champions) and The Blues (they will play in their third consecutive World Cup final after winning it in 2018 and losing to Argentina on penalties in 2022 in Qatar) are each listed as 5/1 odds to lift the trophy, which means only about a 17 percent chance.
Still, it's hard to choose against these two. Spain's deep squad includes 18-year-old Barcelona star Lamine Yamal, whose a good strike against France in the semifinals of the 2024 European Championship (when he was only 16!) made him the youngest goalscorer in the tournament's history. Yamal is sidelined with a hamstring injury but is expected to be fit for Spain's opener on Monday. The French are led by Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid's sensational striker who has scored 12 goals in the past two World Cups, including a team-high eight at the tournament in 2022.
England are next with a 12 percent chance of winning their first major trophy since the 1966 World Cup. The Three Lions, featuring Bayern Munich's top scorer Harry Kane, have lost two consecutive Euro finals, losing to Italy in 2021 (London at Wembley Stadium) and Spain in 2024.
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After that, Portugal, Brazil and defending champion Argentina combined for around 10 percent. The Argentinians seem to be the underdogs here as they make a great comeback as they help the great Lionel Messi to his first World Cup in 2022. But they are four years older now, with the 38-year-old Messi suffering from a hamstring injury he picked up in late May against Inter Miami.
Brazil are hoping that 34-year-old star Neymar will recover from a calf injury, while 41-year-old Portugal star Cristiano Ronaldo is still looking for his first World Cup title as he prepares to play at the tournament for a record sixth (and final?) season.
Germany (just under 7 percent) and the Netherlands (under 5 percent) are next in the headlines, while all other countries are below 3 percent.
Italy's chances are zero per cent after the 12th-placed side once again failed to qualify, this time with a penalty shootout loss to No. 64 Bosnia and Herzegovina in the final round of the European playoffs. Four-time World Cup champion The Azzurri they are the first multiple winners to miss the tournament three times in a row.
Look for the dark horses.
Although it may be shocking if someone other than those mentioned above wins the tournament, some countries are able to make noise.
Norway are on the rise after scoring 37 goals during a perfect 8-0 run in European qualifying, including two crucial victories over Italy. The Norwegians have not played in the World Cup since 1998, but now they are led by the world star Erling Haaland, the outstanding striker of Manchester City who topped the English Premier League with 27 goals this season and scored 16 in the World Cup qualifiers.
Croatia are hoping for one more run after reaching the final in 2018 and finishing third in 2022. Talented midfielder Luka Modric, who won the Golden Ball award as the best player in '18, is still the heart and soul of his gray team at the age of 40.
Morocco were the big Cinderella story four years ago in Qatar, upsetting Spain and Portugal in the tournament to become the first African team to reach the World Cup semi-finals before losing to France and Croatia in the third-place match. They are now ranked seventh in the world – the highest on their continent. Other top 20 noise producing teams include Colombia, Senegal and Japan.
The home field was huge in the World Cup, as only two host countries failed to reach the knockout stages. The new, more forgiving format will make that task much easier for Mexico, the US and Canada – ranked 14th, 17th and 30th in the world respectively – and their supportive crowds can propel them to something surprising, like hosting South Korea in the 2002 semis.
How far can Canada go?
Canada's men's soccer team has come a long way in a short time. After ending their 36-year World Cup drought in 2022 by winning the regionals, Canada is set to make an unthinkable second consecutive appearance – this time earning automatic entry as one of the hosts. The team continued to improve under head coach Jesse Marsch, who took over in 2024, reaching the semi-finals of the decorated Copa America that summer while beginning to attract more binational players to Canada.
But a lot of work remains to be done. Canada is looking for not only its first World Cup victory but its first points after going 0-6 with just two goals scored and 12 allowed in 1986 and 2022.
The good thing is that the stars seem to be aligned this time so that Canada not only gets points but advances to the playoffs for the first time. The Canadians, ranked 30th in the world, appear to have entered one of the softer groups. And all three of their games will be in front of home crowds – this Friday in Toronto vs. No. 64 Bosnia and Herzegovina, June 18 in Vancouver vs. No. 57 Qatar, and on June 24 in Vancouver vs. No. And, as mentioned, finishing in third place is now not enough to advance. A win and a draw will do that, and just one win it is possible to send a group through.
Besides, it turns out that some stars don't align. The brilliant captain Alphonso Davies, Canada's best player and one of the best defenders in the world, is undoubtedly the most hamstrung opener and questionable throughout the tournament. Top defender Moïse Bombito is also likely to miss out due to problems with his surgically repaired leg, while midfielder Marco Flores tore his ACL a few weeks ago (he had who is listed as 26 today is Jayden Nelson). Other injury concerns for Canada include midfielders Jacob Shaffelburg and Ali Ahmed (hamstrings) and defender Alfie Jones (ankle).
It's wrong! But, hey, Canada is about to play in the World Cup. Again. In Canada. Whatever comes next, it's something to celebrate.



