Ukraine continues to have Russian oil refineries and routes. How close is the country to an energy crisis?
Even before Ukraine launched its largest-ever attack on Moscow — hitting a major refinery and sending thick black smoke billowing above the capital on Thursday — the effects of Kyiv's intense drone campaign were being felt by many Russians.
In Crimea, which Moscow annexed illegally in 2014, the Russian-installed governor announced a ban on motorcycles and scooters at night because they sound too much like drones that often fly in the sky.
On the peninsula, there have been empty pumps, fuel restrictions and frustration after Ukrainian strikes designed to choke supply routes to the region.
While the Russian capital and its 13 million residents do not yet experience the same fuel shortages, experts say the country's energy sector is under pressure as Ukraine moves closer to war on its former hostilities, using a combination of long- and medium-range strikes.
“I don't like to see ordinary people suffer, but on the other hand, only the people of Moscow can stop this war,” said Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Kyiv-based Energy Industry Research Center. “It's not like that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin really will go to peace. “
The biggest attack on the Russian capital so far
Putin was not in Moscow on the day Ukraine used about 200 drones to target the capital and the surrounding region. Instead, he was more than 700 kilometers away in the Russian city of Kazan, hosting leaders from Southeast Asian countries.
Russian officials say 16 people were injured and an eight-year-old girl was killed in the incident, which destroyed apartments and a shopping mall, and burned cars. The explosion launched an oil storage tank cap into the air like a giant Frisbee.
The refinery, owned by Gazprom Neft, is southeast of the city and was supplying around 40 percent of the capital's fuel before it was hit twice this week by major strikes.
Videos posted online show moments of chaos and panic as air defenses try to shoot down the drones. After that, pictures appeared of cars covered in black debris, and some residents said there was rain in the sky.
On Friday, Igor Sechin, CEO of Russia's largest oil company, Rosneft, told reporters that the country's fuel market is “facing challenging conditions,” caused by high demand for fuel at certain times of the year and “unplanned activity at refineries.”
He said the company will be able to ensure that fuel will be delivered to “important institutions in the community,” as well as industrial and agricultural companies. He also added that “actually there are no restrictions on fueling at gas stations,” but he said that filling cans is disappointing.
The Kremlin on Friday acknowledged the drone attack, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying, “Appropriate measures to eliminate the consequences are being taken.”
Average in Crimea
In Crimea, where railways, roads and even fuel tanks have been targeted several times, fuel is already limited. On Friday, the governor of Crimea's largest city, Sevastopol, said the limit of 20 liters of gas per car will continue.
His announcement came at the same time that the Ukrainian military said it had hit several railway bridges on the peninsula.
In Russia itself, there have been reports of shortages in regions, including Dagestan, on the west coast of the Caspian Sea.
Citing multiple unnamed sources, Reuters reported that Russia, the world's third-largest economy, is expected to import fuel from Asia this month as a way to try to control the shortage.
Kharchenko, who monitors Russia's refining capacity, said Thursday's attack marked the beginning of a real fuel shortage. However, for the effects to be serious and lasting, he estimated that Ukraine would have to continue to strike Russia's electrical infrastructure for another four to six weeks.
“They can fix it. They can restore power and they are doing it,” he told CBC News. “But step by step, the damage is increasing and so are the problems.”
Ukraine brings war to Moscow
On Friday, at a major defense conference in Paris, Ukrainian drone and missile manufacturer Fire Point played a video detailing Moscow's strikes that took place the day before with the help of its long-range drones.
“Moscow has lived without war … for years,” said Denys Shtilerman, founder and chief designer of Fire Point. “Right now they understand that war is coming to Moscow.”
Shtilerman, who spoke to CBC News on Thursday, said Fire Point's drones were targeting power points in Moscow and transport routes in the Ukrainian-occupied zone that are important to the Russian military.
“The Russian army right now has problems with food delivery, medicine delivery, everything,” he said. “And the pressure on our guys in the trenches is getting less and less.”
