California's rail systems need more passengers. Higher gas prices may fuel a new surge

As the war in Iran continues to choke off oil supplies to the Middle East, public transit agencies looking to add ridership may expect higher fuel prices to encourage more people to ride the rails.

Historically, high electricity prices lead to the use of public transportation. But the pandemic has hit mass transit hard, especially in California, and the recovery is slow as more people continue to work from home.

Fuel prices rose after the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022 but did not encourage a significant increase in local public transport, and the question is whether the reaction to higher fuel prices in the Iran war will be different.

The number of commuters riding local rail lines in California's two largest cities jumped sharply last month. Although officials believe that the price of fuel may be the cause of the increase, experts say that it is not clear whether this is the beginning of the increase in price.

California gas prices are up 30% since the start of the year, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. In the Los Angeles-Long Beach area, the average price of regular gas jumped from $4.67 in February to $5.93 in March; average in San Francisco rose again — from $4.83 in February to $5.99, the American Automobile Assn. report.

At the same time, the number of passengers in each region exceeded about 1 million passengers.

A Times analysis found that Los Angeles Metro ridership rose to 6.3 million in March, up from 5.8 million in March 2025 and 5.7 million in the same month last year.

About 5.4 million riders hopped on the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit line in March, up from 4.5 million in the same month in 2025 and 4.1 million in 2024.

Regional bus systems showed little or no ridership growth: SF's Muni grew from about 13 million riders to about 15 million from March 2024 to March 2026. Los Angeles' Metro has an average ridership of about 20 million at the same time.

In the first two months of the year, the increase in ridership of Metro trains was driven more by weekend riders than by daily trips.

“These commuters often choose Metro for their leisure travel to avoid traffic jams and high fares and parking inconveniences,” said Maya Pogoda, Metro spokeswoman.

But March was very different.

“We saw an 8.6% increase in weekday ridership compared to March 2024, suggesting that more people may be returning to trains for regular, work-related travel – not just occasional trips,” he said.

As it turns out, both LA and the Bay Area had an extremely busy March in terms of local and national events. There was opening day for Major League Baseball teams in both states, as well as several No Kings protests — and each had local events that were close to several train stations.

BART riders — including locals and out-of-towners — rode the rail to attend the five-day Game Developers Conference: Festival of Games, which began March 1, and the four-day cybersecurity conference RSAC 2026, which began March 23, said Alicia Trost, BART's chief communications officer.

In Southern California, the Dodgers and Angels held a three-game spring training series later in the month, and each team's stadium is just a short walk from the train station. On March 15, Hollywood hosted the Oscars – not far from the B Line.

In general, however, getting people out of their cars, even in times of high gas prices, is difficult, said Michael Manville, a professor of urban planning at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs.

“People are stuck in their cars,” Manville said. “Even if they start to feel what they are like, they don't change the way they walk, they reduce other things.”

The change in transportation habits will start with low-income people and families, said Ethan N. Elkind, director of the Climate Program at UC Berkeley's Center for Law, Energy and Environment.

The last time a war led to an increase in fuel prices followed by an increase in the number of people traveling on public transport was when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 – however it is difficult to prove a direct correlation, Elkind said.

For one thing, the increase in gasoline prices did not last long, he said.

“It didn't lead to any long-term changes,” Elkind said.

Bringing long-term change, LA's Metro has been growing and recently announced that it is testing a people mover at Los Angeles International Airport. The shuttle is connected to the new LAX/Metro Transit Center and has connections to the system's C and K lines. There are also four new stops on the A Line in the San Gabriel Valley.

Transit managers have also started “activities” — shopping or entertainment designed to encourage people to spend some time at stations rather than just passing through. In March, there were eight such events, including an open market at the Glendora station, a night market in Pomona and a violinist who played for two hours at the 7th and Metro station.

Elkind and Manville say that if the price of gas stays high for too long, people will start to change the way they travel.

They may start by ending sightseeing but then start “switching to transportation because now it's a necessity because they can't drive anymore, or they incur additional costs,” said Elkind. “That suggests a more favorable rate for taking transportation, or that may mean it takes longer to get where they need to go.”

With that in mind, there is now a cheaper alternative to gasoline-powered cars – electric cars. Although new EV sales are down with Trump in the White House and the elimination of EV purchase incentives, used ones are now more affordable than new or gas-powered cars.

The best way to get more people to use their local transit system, Elkind said, is to have stations within easy walking or biking distance of homes and businesses.

“That's where we really failed, especially in California,” because the places we go to are not transportation-oriented, Elkind said. There are exceptions such as the subway system in Koreatown, downtown Los Angeles, West Hollywood, Santa Monica, downtown San Francisco, Oakland and Berkeley.

“But these are small pockets,” he said, “and not enough for them.”