In a typical midterm, Donna Layne votes long before Election Day.
But this time it was different for the 75-year-old Democrat. Late wrangles and fears of a “wasted vote” leading to a deadlock for Democrats in the California governor's race meant he didn't make his final decision until Friday.
California Democrats have been wringing their hands for weeks over who will come out on top in the tight race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom. The sudden departure of incumbent Eric Swalwell amid allegations of sexual harassment and California's jungle system, which sends the top two vote-getters to the November general election regardless of party affiliation, added pressure for Democrats to rally around the candidates with the best chance to advance.
“I was worried,” Layne said as she slipped her ballot into the drop box. “I wanted to do my vote count and I was afraid there might be two Republicans because they voted so much, so I wanted to strategize about it.”
On Friday morning, voters – mostly Democrats like Layne – walked into the Orange County Registrar of Voters in Santa Ana to turn in their ballots. A few told The Times that they often wait to vote until the days leading up to the election so they can watch all the debates and get the latest information about the candidates.
But the majority said they were holding on to their votes this year for longer than usual.
As of Friday, 19% of California Republicans had already voted, compared to 16% at the same time in the 2022 primary, according to data from Political Data Inc.
An election worker separates ballots from enveloped ballots to be deposited at the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk's Ballot Processing Center on Thursday in Industry City.
(Gary Coronado/The Times)
Meanwhile, only 14% of the state's registered Democrats had their votes returned, down from 17% at this point in 2022. Only 29% of Democrats age 65 and older — typically active voters — had returned their votes, down from 33% in 2022, the data show.
But that doesn't mean Democrats will sit on the sidelines. The data shows that Democrats have begun returning their votes in earnest in the past few days, a trend that will likely continue until Election Day, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc.
“More and more of this fear they've heard in the media — and that's been mitigated — is that the Democrat is not going to win,” Mitchell said. “In fact, there's a growing sense that we can have two Democrats take over, so that fear — of the political party — is gone, but the voters are still clinging to it.”
Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former Health and Labor secretary, has risen slightly in recent polls, putting him in a good position to advance in November. He was leading in a poll released Thursday by UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, with the support of about 25% of California voters.
Former US Secretary of Health and Human Services and California Atty. Gen. Xavier Becerra, the front runner in the governor's race, shared a small moment with fans at the UFCW Local 1167 Union Hall in Bloomington, Friday.
(Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times)
Trailing slightly behind with support from 21% of likely state voters is Steve Hilton, the former Fox News commentator whom President Trump endorsed. In third place with 19% support was another Democrat: Tom Steyer, a hedge fund founder and environmental activist.
With increasing support for Becerra, Hilton and Steyer since the last Berkeley IGS/Times poll in March, the poll provided the clearest indication yet that those candidates have distanced themselves from the rest of the field.
Support for Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the only other major Republican candidate in the race, dropped 5 percentage points from the March poll to last week's, putting him in a distant fourth place at 11 percent. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter saw her support drop by nearly half to 7%. Other prominent Democrats — San José Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and county Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond – all were in the low single digits, the survey found.
Republican candidate Steve Hilton speaks at a news conference outside the CIF State Track Championships in Clovis, where transgender athlete AB Hernandez will be competing on Friday.
(Tomas Ovalle/The Times)
About a dozen registered Democrats interviewed by The Times said they voted last week for the person they thought would have the best chance of advancing in the district's primary, even if it wasn't the right candidate.
“I love Katie Porter,” said Connie Wadsley, 78. “I really love him, but I didn't see him being able to let it go.
In the end, Wadsley and her husband, Victor, voted for Steyer. Becerra, he said, is too political for his liking, but Steyer impressed him with his promise not to take corporate money and his position on social justice issues.
“I think we have to fix things in this situation – in this nation,” he said. “Yes, [Steyer] he's a millionaire and I'm not really happy about that, but he really seems to be spending his money on things that I feel are important.”
For some voters, the total number of candidates – 61 in total – was not available. Some even organize gatherings with like-minded political friends to discuss the best course of action.
“I think it was very surprising for a lot of people, especially when they got their vote and saw all those names,” said Linda Verraster, associate president of Democratic Women of South Orange County. “There was this fear of making a mistake — air quotes — that could lead to two Republicans in a runoff.”
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, left, and Gov. Gray Davis joked with each other as Davis showed Schwarzenegger the governor's private office at the Capitol in Sacramento on Oct. 23, 2003.
(Rich Pedroncelli/Associated Press)
This race seems reminiscent of the 2003 recall election when 135 people ran for the position of the then Government. Gray Davis during the crisis of the power of the state. Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, won with an estimated 48% of the vote.
But this race differs in several important ways, experts say.
In particular, while all of the top candidates have impressive resumes, there is a lack of star power that could help propel someone forward. Instead, Democrats “have a selection process that's like a moderate Dem to a moderate Dem,” said Matt Lesenyie, an assistant professor of political science at Cal State Long Beach.
“There are a lot of people, but they walk the same route and I think it's a big problem,” he said. “They are loathe to really criticize some of the underlying issues like a real opponent would.”
Verraster put it simply: “There is no unicorn.”
Still, he'll be happy if one of the two Democratic front-runners — or both — make the ballot.
