Picking the 2026 British Open winner, after hearing 37,000 entries from broadcasters

Professionals, says Justin Rose, like to be prepared. And they can feel that way at the Open Championship.

But here, preparedness means preparedness for the unexpected.

“I think at the end of the Open Championship, your preparation has to be – you can't do anything right,” Rose said. “Play creatively and play in the moment. Just play with a lot of skill in the moment. See the shot, go and run.

“You may not have practiced, you may not have hit that shot in a while, but if you see it, go for it.”

The thought came Tuesday, about seven minutes into Rose's pre-Open press conference. There was an insight into what is needed this week at Royal Birkdale.

But what happens when you listen to everyone's pre-Open press conference, 195 minutes and more than 37,000 words in total?

You might just be, well, fixed starting Thursday in England.

And maybe, just maybe, you're ready to pick a winner.

Below is what this writer heard. Use it wisely. Or not.

'Distance control will be key'

Who said: The phrase often used this week to describe Birkdale is 'hard and fast,' and Jon Rahm was asked how the player combats that. “I can see how strong they let the vegetables get, right?” he said. “St. Andrews was tough and their fairways are very fast, but the greens, they were able to keep it soft. That's why you saw the goals down, and it was affecting the aggressiveness.

“This time around, if these greens are much smaller than St Andrews, distance control will be key.

“This golf course is known to be very difficult. The weather is usually very difficult, it's windy. It's always windy, isn't it? So a lot of those holes are going to be very challenging.

“And it depends on the setup. With yesterday's wind, 13 and 18 were 500-plus yards straight into the wind. Maybe they moved it up, maybe not. If they didn't, it would be a very long hole. If they move it up a little bit, it's still a long hole but a little bit easier. Same with 15.

“So it will be up to the tournament committee in terms of ball setup, but I think understanding how the ball is going to react and the fairways and greens is always a challenge.”

What it means to choose: Who is good at intimacy? Who has a plan without a tee? The PGA Tour's top five in strokes gained: close this season are Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Si Woo Kim, JJ Spaun and Tom Kim, while Jon Rahm and Laurie Canter are in the top five on the green in regulation on the LIV Golf circuit. As for the wind, here's the forecast from weather.com: 12 mph on Thursday, and 13 mph on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and each day, you'll be blowing from the north.

'At Birkdale, you can be aggressive, but you don't always have that chance'

Who said: Rahm, who used hole 1 as an example. “You can hit the driver, but who knows where that ball will end up if you're not accurate.” He also said: “From what I've learned in the past, if you start taking drivers out of the Open Championship, you can do a good job for a short period of time. Maybe you can get away with it for one round. In four rounds you'll start getting places you don't want to be in, and you'll pay the price.”

What it means to choose: Accuracy off the tee won't hurt. But approach will also be important – if players hit something short off the tee, strong iron play will be beneficial. However…

'Okay, it might be hard, but that's not the penalty'

Who said: Rory McIlroy, speaking about one of the consequences of the dry conditions at Birkdale. “The big thing, especially off the tee here, is the fairway bunkers and avoiding those,” he said. “You might see some guys being more aggressive, taking the driver, trying to clear the fairway bunkers. OK, it might be tough, but that's not the penalty, so you get a wedge in your hand and you can get it there.”

What it means to choose: Bryson DeChambeau heard the buzz this week. But if McIlroy's assessment is correct, DeChambeau is playing this week — he's won the same way in the 2020 and 2024 US Opens.

'The flow areas were still very long'

Who said: Joe Dean, on Monday after his win in the new Last Chance Qualifier. “I was surprised when I saw that the flowing areas were still tall, rather than grass,” he said. “Usually you can putt well. Obviously they almost take the green off, but not today. I think it's to stop it from getting too dry. It's a chip-and-run with a 5-iron and it seems to do the trick.”

What it means to choose: In terms of likely not being an option, the cut will be a feature, and perhaps a smart cut, as Dean notes when talking about the 5-iron chip. The PGA Tour's top five in strokes gained: on the green this season are Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day and Ben Griffin. At LIV, Bryson DeChambeau, Thomas Detry and Scott Vincent rounded out the top five in scoring.

'You have to make a choice'

Who said: Somehow, a few players say that, but let's listen to Tommy Fleetwood's thoughts.

“It's an incredibly well-designed golf course because going back to the main goal a lot of the time on links golf is to avoid fairways, avoid fairways, avoid potholes, but I feel like there's always something to play for unless you want to be incredibly smart and like you're always at the back of the golf course. You're always on the long drive.

“I think it's a very well-designed golf course for that. I think you have to choose whether you're going to take something, deliver something, or almost play very safe if anything.

“Yeah, it's a course that makes you think, I think it's a course that gives you options, you can hit driver anywhere if you want, there's nothing stopping you from doing that. It's not the way I'll see golf, but other people will.

“Yeah, I think that's always a good sign of a golf course that there's – you can sit six people here, and they can think of six different things to do off the tee, and I think that's always a really good sign.”

What it means to choose: The Open Championship forces you to think – fear! – and Birkdale is for academics. What does the wind do? How is the turf? How to flirt with bunkers? Where can you be angry? Is there bail? Then there is answering these questions again the next day. Then there is the answer to these questions on Sunday, when there are only a few holes left. In a practice round at Birkdale, Rahm said he was hitting 6 irons on the par-4s – 6 irons! We will say that once you get to the Open, you can solve the puzzles that are asked of you, and be flexible because of the ever-changing conditions and circumstances of golf — and especially Open Championship golf. But maybe your choice won the Open, or at least the big winner. Or someone invested in math; someone who has done the work ahead of time so that any surprises feel less shocking. Or they have a solid caddy. …

'I think communication is very important'

Who said: Fitzpatrick, when asked about the number of caddies this week. “I think communication is very important,” he said. “You've got to be on the same page with the shots you're seeing, especially on the links golf. Obviously there's a lot of variety to play. Birkdale allows you to play a lot of different shots because you can fly the green, you can bounce it short, you can contour to the right or the left. These are links golf.”

What it means to choose: This week, the caddy must be decisive, assertive and unfocused. Being a seasoned looper will help.

'Hard Place'

Who said: McIlroy, asked about playing the Open at home, which he did last year and in 2019 at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. “It's a tough place,” he said. “It's a great place, but it's tough in a way that you just feel more expectations on your shoulders, and you feel like you're trying to play well for everybody and not yourself. I think there's already enough pressure on anyone in this industry to play well for themselves, so to add an extra layer on top of that is always very difficult. Yeah, like Tommy coming back here, for example, I feel like Tommy's at his best but I feel like I'm not more than five minutes. Maybe he won't — he won't fall into that trap like I did in 2019. It always seems to take me one time to fix it.”

What it means to choose: One of the stories of the year will be Fleetwood who has won a course close to where he grew up. But how strong are his blinders?

'As this area is very difficult, it requires me to drive mentally'

Who said: Jordan Spieth, when asked about his game. “If this area is very difficult, it requires me to drive slowly mentally, which I think will be a good thing,” he said. “Then you can handle anything that comes at you in a big difficult place and not be slow to react.”

What it means to choose: An interesting thought. Can a struggling player make it? Or someone going through some transformational changes? Previous major tournament winners may also say they drove less mentally when they won.

'It's important to get here'

Who said: Spieth, who did not play last week's Scottish Open, but played practice rounds at Birkdale last weekend. “It's almost impossible to overestimate the spirit,” he said. “I feel like I'm looking at it a little bit every first three or four days that I play golf here. Whether it's windy or downhill or downhill, the effect on the golf ball is magnified almost twice as much as it is in the States. … It's important to come here and get your distance control, the total amount of distance control dialed in. We make it more difficult. If you like to use, like me, 60 degrees and spin and spin a lot, those shots are very difficult when they go around the greens he can jump on are very easy to manage your normal Opens.

What it means to choose: It's easy here. Go with players who played the Scottish Open, or, like Spieth, spent time at Birkdale.

'Obviously we'll be watching'

Who said: Rose, when asked if he plans to watch England's World Cup semi-final on Wednesday, which started at 8 p.m. “Obviously, we will be watching,” said Rose. “But at the same time I'm going to focus on what's important to me and not get too high and slow down and control my emotions. We've got some big things to do this week, but at the same time, it's a game where if you think you're not going to watch it, you're probably playing yourself.”

What it means to choose: You might want to check which English players were out on Thursday morning.

And the choice?

When you consider the style of play, the short game, the championship pedigree and the readiness, it looks like Matt Fitzpatrick's week, doesn't it? There's also this: Did Fitzpatrick feel he was playing better golf than he did in 2022, when he won the US Open?

“Yeah, I'm definitely playing better,” he said.

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