Sandy Alcantara's home run gives the Miami Marlins a boost on tonight's at-bat

We managed to escape with another win on the diamond yesterday. It wasn't a walk in the park, but a win is a win. David Peterson allowed just one run, and Trevor Rogers allowed just one run, but his was the sixth when Seyia Suzuki hit a bomb. The Orioles ended up winning the game 3-2, and really, the end result is all that matters. Hopefully this game won't be a sweat as we play the Guardian vs. Marlins matchup.

The Cleveland Guardians are once again fighting for the American League Central Division title. That's not surprising. The surprising thing is that they are fighting the White Sox. That's a different story for a different article, though. The Rangers are now two games over .500 and always seem to find a way around the postseason race. This team is not filled with many celebrities or guys you don't know, but they are a team that gets the job done. They also seem to benefit greatly from their boarding staff.

Parker Messick, one of the best strikers this season, started today for the Guardians. On the year, Messick is 7-5 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has been better on the road in terms of runs allowed than at home, but has allowed seven of his nine homers on the road. His worst month of the season was June, but he responded well as the calendar turned to July. In his most recent start, he allowed just one earned run over five innings. He hasn't faced the Marlins, so he could have the potential to face them for the first time in the lineup.

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This has been a dream season and I am running for the Miami Marlins. Although not finished, this “rebuilding” team seems to be building or building something special. Currently, the team is 52-42 and 14 games over .500 at home. Perhaps what should impress you the most is that this team has one player over 30 outside of their own players. Sometimes, a young talent clicks, and it looks like this is what happened. They were 26-34 on May 1, and since going 26-8, one of the hottest teams in baseball.

Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara pitches against the New York Mets during the first inning of a baseball game, Sunday, July 10, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)

There is still the question of what the Marlins will do at the deadline. While they are unlikely to trade position players, there is a big market they may not let go of today's starter, Sandy Alcantara. On the year, he is 10-4 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He was a better striker at home than on the road. He has made nine home starts and has allowed 21 earned runs there. Of those 21 runs, 13 came in two games. That means he has allowed eight earned runs in seven home starts. Only one Guardian batsman has faced Alcantara – Rhys Hoskins who is 9-41 against him.

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The instinct of this game is to play under. The Guardians aren't a high-scoring team, but the Marlins can put some runs on the board. It would be surprising to see an over hit, but with only seven, there is little room for error. I personally don't like to bet on things like that.

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) thanks the fans as they celebrate his 1,002 career strikeouts during a game against the Texas Rangers at Depot Park. June 23, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; (Jim Russell)

On the other hand, Alcantara is elite at home. Sure, Messick was good on the road and all, but not to the level of Alcantara at home. Take away his worst start to the season at home, and he was very strong. About 78% of the time, he has allowed 2 or fewer home runs this season. He is -140 to allow two or fewer earned runs in a game. I like that bet a bit, but I also like the Marlins to win, so I'll play both.

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