Glizzy Gambling: Best Bets for the 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest in Coney Island, Brooklyn

Fireworks, flags and BBQs are Fourth of July staples, but America's 250th birthday brings an extra helping of absurdity to Coney Island. However, no one captures the spirit of a nation like a legend Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contesta Coney Island spectacle that dates back to 1916.

As funny as it may sound, it's my favorite Red, White and Boom tradition is to bet on Nathan's Dog Eating Contest. Since joining OutKick in 2022, I have cashed in three of my Major League Eating (MLE) Super Bowls.

Elite diners face a fierce new adversary this year: Brooklyn's hot weather forecast climbs into the upper 90s. The extreme heat is set to significantly affect the speed of the swallow, shaking the oddsmakers' lines completely. Welcome to “Glizzy Gambling,” your ultimate betting guide to making money this Independence Day.

JOEY CHESTNUT WILL DEFEND NATHAN'S HOT DOG EATING CONTEST TITLE ON JULY 4 WHILE GIVEN A PROBATION

These errors are best discovered at the time of writing and are subject to change.

Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Joey Chestnut: UNDER 70.5 (-165) per DraftKings

First, i A shiny goat ate hot dogs and buns (HDB) five times and finished with exactly 70.5 HBD last year. Not to be too nerdy here, but since 5 out of 16 is 31% and the implied probability of -165 is 62%, I get a good UNDER 70.5 HBD number.

However, if you include the heat considered, I get a good price for that Under. Temperatures in Brooklyn on the 4th of July are predicted to be in the upper 90s, and it's hard to keep glizzies down in the heat. Sweating in the heat leads to dehydration and makes it harder to throw down all those hot dogs. The buns become stale and hard to eat.

Joey Chestnut wins the men's competition at Nathan's Annual Hot Dog Eating Contest in New York City on July 4, 2025. He returned to the competition to win 17 after missing the 2024 event due to a sponsorship dispute with Major League Eating. (Adam Gray/Getty Images)

JOEY CHESTNUT MAKES RETURN TO HOT DOG EATING COMPETITION AFTER CONTRACT DISPUTES, TEMPORARY BAN

The 17-time Mustard Belt winner ate 54 HBD in 2010, and it was 96° outside. When Chestnut dropped a record 76 HBD in 2021, the weather was in the mid-70s, which is considered the perfect weather for the tournament. In 2020, the hot dog eating contest was put on hold due to the COVID pandemic, and Chestnut ate a record 75 HBD.

Winner Without Joey Chestnut: James Webb (+650) via FanDuel

Patrick Bertoletti is the odds favorite in this market at -300 based on the fact that he won the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest when Chestnut was barred from competing due to his sponsorship deal with Impossible Foods. But last July 4, Bertoletti ate only one HBD than Webb (46.5-45.5).

Bertoletti's odds of -300 are 75%, and Webb's odds are 13% at +650 odds. Simply put, Bertoletti is 62% less likely to drop more HBD than Webb, who is second only to Chestnut in the MLE with three wins this season.

James Webb devours a record 276 Buffalo wings in just 12 minutes at the 2023 National Buffalo Wing Festival in Orchard Park, New York, over Labor Day weekend, easily surpassing legendary competitor Joey Chestnut. (Photo by David Marino)

That includes Webb's two record-breaking appearances at the ManorPalooza World Texas Sausage-Eating Championship (55 Texas sausage) and the Kickoff To Summer Blackberry Moonshine Wing Championship (256 wings).

Gideon Oji (-145) > Radim Dvořáček

In his two Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contests, Dvořáček downed 23 HBDs in 2024 and 30.5 last year. Oji, on the other hand, has racked up 31+ HBDs in eight of his 10 contests, including three in a row.

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Dvořáček is 12th in the MLE rankings, while Oji is ninth. Oji won the 2026 National Sweet Corn Eating Championship, while Dvořáček did not win this season.

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