SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX The IPO is the most talked about market event in recent years. But Chris Graebe, an analyst at Weiss Ratings, says the investors who will really benefit have already gotten in—and not recently.
Graebe has spent the past few years guiding everyday investors in private companies before they reach public trading. In a market awash with IPO enthusiasm, his message is equal parts exciting and sobering: the biggest gains in any IPO story almost always go to those who wrote the checks long before the opening bell.
SpaceX Reality Check
For retail investors dreaming of a SpaceX windfall, Graebe's vision is clear. Investors are in a position to make the most of that deal they got years ago, at much lower prices than today. Institutional capital, along with a number of early stage creditors, are the ones riding the IPO. Any online offering that claims to give retail investors access to SpaceX right now—token coins, fractional insider shares—requires extreme caution. Do your own due diligence before doing anything you find online.
That doesn't mean the space economy is limitless. It means that the opportunity may be elsewhere.
A Rule Most Investors Don't Know About
Here are a lot of people who remember you. Under the 2016 Jobs Act, everyday investors, accredited or not, gained the ability to invest in private companies through the provision of SEC-qualified Regulation A. Think of it as an Amazon-style marketplace for early stage companies raising money, with about 55 active sites currently ranking somewhere between 490 and 500 offerings. The minimum investment can range from $100 to $500, depending on the deal.
Graebe says most investors still don't know this is possible. Many founders don't even know that they can raise money from their clients this way. That gap, he says, is exactly where the opportunity arises.
Starfighters Space: Air-Launch Play
Starfighters Space Today
Starfighters Space
- 52 week interval
- $4.39
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$31.50
Starfighters Space, Inc. (NYSE American: FJET) is trying to solve one of the most expensive problems in the satellite economy: the launch line. The company operates a fleet of refurbished F-104 jets from NASA's Kennedy Space Center and builds an air launch system designed to carry small satellites 45,000 feet before launching a rocket into low orbit. The upside is speed and cost—potentially a two-week turnaround compared to the months-long wait that's now common for regular launches.
Graebe says he invested in the company's Regulation A at about $3.59 per share, and participants saw the stock open at $10 on the December 2025 US NYSE debut before rising to $31.50 on the third day of trading. He says that represents a 7x return on those who went in at the price of a private round. Significantly, there was no lock-in period—investors had access to their shares from day one.
Whether FJET is worth buying at current prices is a very difficult question. The company is raising early stage funding and is still developing its startup plans, and stocks in the space in general are hot. Shares retreated from $31.50 on the third day and were trading around $8 through June—still well above Graebe's private entry. He says he has held the position for a long time, citing the need for NASA and the Space Force to achieve low-cost startups and what he describes as a talented leadership team.
BeatBox Drinks: Cuban-Backed Party Punch
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV today
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
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- $56.97
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$84.46
- Dividend Yield
- 1.79%
- The P/E ratio
- 21.48
- Target Value
- $93.42
The second win was more of a space race. BeatBox Beverages is a ready-to-drink party brand started by three founders from Austin, Texas, who received a $1 million investment from Mark Cuban on Shark Tank in 2014. Graebe says he found the company in 2020 when it was doing about $7 million in revenue, saw something in the founders' strength, and jumped in.
In February 2026, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV NYSE: BUD completed its acquisition of an 85% stake in BeatBox for up to $490 million, on the way to full ownership after five years. Graebe says early-stage private investors saw returns of roughly 5x to 6x on those exits—over a six-year hold. BeatBox no longer trades independently; it now operates within AB InBev's Beyond Beer portfolio.
The story is instructive beyond the numbers. Graebe recommends founder evaluation as the single most important factor in early stage investing. Grit, humility, and determination to build the right team around the main idea are the traits he looks for. Arrogance is what sends him running.
Eagle Nuclear Energy: The Uranium Deposit Everyone Forgot About
Eagle Nuclear Power Today
Eagle Nuclear Power
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$14.22
The third option is the matter of silent uranium. Eagle Nuclear Energy Corp. Description: NUCL owns the rights to the Aurora Uranium Project—a large near-surface deposit on the Oregon-Nevada border with an estimated and proven resource of 32.75 million pounds of uranium, and additional potential from the nearby Cordex deposit. The company completed its SPAC merger and began trading on the Nasdaq in February 2026.
Graebe says he invested in the first private round of about $3.50 per share, visited the site in person, and timed his entry in time for the March 2025 order that called for aggressive domestic uranium mining. He says the stock reached about $14 at its peak, about five weeks after listing, and was trading in the high single digits in June.
The nuclear narrative has cooled since the 2025 frenzy. Graebe says that's actually part of the appeal—the need for data center power isn't going away, and smaller modular reactors are increasingly part of the long-term solution. He held the stock and remains bearish on the issue, citing the strategic home value of the deposit as demand for the grid continues to rise.
Conexeu Sciences: Biotech Wildcard
Conexeu Sciences Today
Conexeu Sciences
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$18.79
The fourth pick is the team's biggest risk. Share price of Conexeu Sciences Inc. Source: CNXU a preclinical biotech developing a collagen-based extracellular matrix scaffold platform targeting wound care, dental regeneration, esthetics, and 3D-printed tissue reconstruction, including post-mastectomy breast reconstruction. The company completed a direct listing on Nasdaq on May 21, 2026.
Graebe says he invested in a private round at about $2 per share, about 10 months before the listing. Since its IPO, the price has fluctuated, rising as high as $17 per share. From his $2 secret entry, that still represents roughly 8x profit.
The caveat here is true: preclinical biotech is among the riskiest categories for early stage investment. FDA study results, funding, and execution risk are all very important. Graebe says he's attracted to low-tech biotechs—like technology startups rather than traditional drug developers—because they stretch the line and demonstrate the right management. His long read at CNXU is an acquisition by a big pharma player once a clinical milestone is cleared, though nothing in the company's current phase makes that outcome certain.
IPO Cycle Alert
Graebe closed with an outline of history that should be preserved. The year 1999 saw a record number of IPOs, followed almost immediately by the dot-com crash. The year 2021 produced more than 1,000 IPOs—and was followed by a brutal correction in 2022. IPO volumes are rising again. He thinks the current cycle continues for another year and a half to two years before it starts again.
His reading: the higher the hype and the slower the IPO activity, the better opportunities for the private sector arise. The investors who poured money into Facebook, Airbnb, and Instagram during the 2008-2009 downturn weren't making headlines—they were building the foundation for the next wave. AI's valuation environment right now, he says, rhymes with dot-com: the huge valuations are chasing revenues that haven't fully materialized yet.
A SpaceX IPO would be wild. But if history is a guide, the people with the pops are the ones who have taken the lead.
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