Summertime is finally here, which means it's time for baseball, barbecues, and drinks. But in 2026, it's time to whip out the credit card again as skyrocketing prices for commodities like oil and beef squeeze consumers.
And if you've been to a production facility lately, you may have experienced another shock. Tomato prices have risen to an all-time high, and the rush seems to be gaining momentum.
The increase in the price of tomatoes happened quickly this spring due to a combination of factors. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices per pound rose to $2.69 in April, an increase of nearly 40% year-over-year (YOY) and the highest reported since 1980.
A dramatic price increase like this is usually not caused by a single event, and tomatoes are currently facing a three-pronged storm:
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Provide: Mother nature will always have a major influence on new crops like tomatoes, and the poor growing season of 2026 is largely to blame for the current crisis. Florida's unseasonably cold weather, combined with a wet growing season, has hampered harvests this year, and now the shortage is being felt in the consumer staples sector.
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Transportation: The war in Iran has reared its ugly head again, as rising diesel prices make it more expensive to transport fresh tomatoes. Unlike commodities like oil or gold, tomatoes are highly perishable. They have to be transported by truck at regular intervals, which means producers have to pay higher costs or risk damaging their produce. Tomatoes also cannot be hedged in the futures market like other agricultural commodities, such as grain or sugar, so consumers are completely exposed to the price.
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Prices: As the consumption of tomatoes increased, so did imports. Domestic producers account for only 30% of the total, and a 2025 Texas A&M study found that nearly 90% of imported tomatoes come from Mexico. But that didn't stop the Trump administration from slapping a 17% tariff on fresh tomatoes from Mexico because of unfair trade practices. The tax rate was introduced last July after the growth period was over for most of the time, so consumers felt a big hit this year as the price increase was passed on.
Tomatoes are one of the most consumed vegetables (yes, vegetables) in the world, so many public companies can be exposed to them. But two companies stand out for the wrong reason: both were already facing business headwinds before tomato prices began, and higher input costs could add more pressure to margins at a time when pricing power looks limited.
Campbell's Company: Massive Guidance Cut Emphasizes Structural Decline
Campbell's Today
As of 06/2/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
- 52 week interval
- $19.56
▼
$34.66
- Dividend Yield
- 7.43%
- The P/E ratio
- 11.47
- Target Value
- $22.88
Campbell's Company NASDAQ: CPB it's more than just soups now.
The Meals and Beverages segment produces Prego, V8, Pacific Foods, Campbell's Soup, and the recently acquired Sovos Brands, which includes premium Rao's sauces.
The Snacks division owns Pepperidge Farm, Lance, Cape Cod, and Snack Factory. So far, 2026 has been a tumultuous year on both fronts.
The company lowered its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance by 26% during its Q2 earnings report in March, while snack margins fell by 7%.
Snacks are facing headwinds from GLP-1 and consumer trade, while Rao's acquisition appears to be highly unlikely as consumers buy $9 jars of pasta sauce.
The chart is bad again, the stock is down almost 20% in the last three months and is facing resistance at the 50-day moving average. Don't let the false hype fool you either. The last time the stock poked its head above 50 on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), it led to a big wash a few sessions later.
Conagra Products: Tomato Exposure Works Deeply Through Product Offerings
Conagra Brands Today
Conagra Brands
- 52 week interval
- $12.76
▼
$22.81
- Dividend Yield
- 10.89%
- Target Value
- $15.27
Company Conagra Brands Inc. NYSE: CAG is the $6 billion firm behind a variety of tomato-infused consumer products such as Hunt's, RAGU, Healthy Choice, Chef Boyardee, Bird's Eye, and more.
Unlike Campbell's, Conagra actually reported organic sales growth of more than 2% in its Q3 2026 fiscal report in April, but the marginal decline dampens the headline numbers.
Operating margins fell 213 basis points during that period, and the company expects cost of goods sold (COGS) inflation of 7% for the fiscal year.
Additionally, free cash flow has been cut in half from the prior year, making the current yield of nearly 11% look like a bright red warning sign.
And like CPB shares, CAG experienced a short bull run in February, when the stock briefly crossed the 50-day and 200-day moving averages for the first time in more than a year. But this rally was short-lived, and the stock quickly resumed its decline with strong resistance at the 50-day moving average. The RSI is also in bearish territory but has not yet reached an oversold condition, so there may be more to go before any recovery is attempted.
Before you consider Campbell's, you'll want to hear this.
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