Bitcoin price recently pulled back to end a 4-day rally that started at the end of March. Last week, BTC rose to trade at $81,699 before retreating to the current level of $76,128. This recent pullback was partly due to the waning of bullish momentum after the bitcoin price approached overbought conditions on the 14-day RSI.
However, the upward momentum is still supported by the 100-day moving average, which remains slightly below the current bitcoin price. However, Bitcoin pulled back to trade around the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which is now being challenged as a major support level.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for traders
Different investors make money with Bitcoin in a different way. Some thrive on “HODLing”, while others enjoy the volatility of crypto markets. This latter group consists mainly of short-term traders, who capitalize on the regular rallies and declines in bitcoin prices.
For traders, The price of Bitcoin it may continue to pull back towards the 0.236 Fib level, making it a suitable short-term trade target. And in the unlikely event that the key support area is breached, bears can always lower their targets to the $60,000 mark.
However, momentum is important for the bulls, given the recent confluence (100-day MA and 0.236 Fib level, all at the same time).
Therefore, even a pullback below the 0.236 Fib level may still trigger a rally that pushes the Bitcoin price above $85,000, and closer to the 0.382 Fib level. The level of $85,000 also looks more unlikely than a trip back to $60,000 or even $70,000, as Bitcoin last week broke the key level of $82,000.
What's Driving the Current Bitcoin Price Gain?
Although there has not been another Federal Funds Interest Rate cut since December, the Federal Reserve has not raised rates. This factor, coupled with a volatile US dollar, has made Bitcoin, a risky asset, more attractive as a store of value.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of other world currencies, fell from around 101 in March to a current level of around 98. Therefore, its trend has been down, while Bitcoin is up.
However, with Trump's nomination Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the US Senate last Wednesday as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Here it is market speculation that there will now be a higher chance of more rate hikes in 2026 than there would have been under Jerome Powell's leadership. Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com, recently shared in an emailed note to investors that the Fed Fund Futures and Treasury Yield curves suggest a 40% chance of an upward trend by the end of the year.
“Fears are also growing about sticky inflation, low risks to economic activity, and (wisely), high US interest rates. Although it is only visible in Fed Fund Futures and Treasury yields, markets are pricing in the fact that the next move from the US Federal Reserve will be a rate hike,” he said.
This expectation contradicts the general view that Trump-elect may be inclined to lower rates because Trump and his advisers pushing for rate cut. A cut in the Federal Funds Interest Rate affects yields, thus making riskier assets like Bitcoin more attractive as a store of value.
Spot ETF Flows Back in the Green
Bitcoin is also benefiting from a resurgence in ETF flows, which have pulled back to support the bullish view amid growing institutional demand.
Source: BitBo
As shown in the chart by BiTBO, the Bitcoin ETF's flow has started to match the pattern from the last 12 months, which ended with Bitcoin hitting highs above $126,000.
We are now starting to see very thick and long bars representing entry versus short and short exit bars. The period between October 2025 and February 2026 is the exact opposite and includes bear market activity.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can It Hit $100,000 in 2026 and Where Will It Go in Five Years?
In the last two years, Bitcoin has become more than a cryptocurrency, opening up more value propositions in the form of existing ETFs, digital asset treasuries (DATs), and being the basis for the development of various financial products.
Thus, the pull back between October last year and February this year is one that did not have a long-term business, because this time, investors can look at Bitcoin in many aspects. As a store of value, a medium of exchange, a balance sheet asset, and, most importantly, a smart investment tool that defines the financial future.
Bitcoin price tends to go through cycles that include long bull runs, short but sharp pullbacks, and some sideways movement as the market recovers. We area similar pattern has already begun to form following the crash of the holiday season.
Bitcoin is on track to reach the $100,000 price level in November if the current momentum continues. It has recently pulled back to avoid crossing the oversold area of the 14-week RSI, and has plenty of room to run before approaching the overbought area.
However, before it gets there, it will need to break the 100-week moving average, especially if it gets there before the end of the year.
Bitcoin Price Prediction as Open Interest Supports Uptrend
To get the price of Bitcoin to $100,000, many catalysts will be needed. Bitcoin open interest is one that investors can rely on, now. After a big fall between October and February, BTC open interest has been on the rise, as shown using the Coinglass chart below.
Bulls are also edging it on open interest options, according to Coinglass, with 57% calls and about 43% puts. This also supports the current rise, going into the second half of the year.
The geopolitical climate has also eased, with Trump calling for a deal with Iran to fix the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck that has led to a spike in oil prices.
Bitcoin Price Path to $250,000?
If Bitcoin continues to show the same cyclical patterns it has in the past, a new high could be on the cards in mid-2027, with a price target of around $160,000 as shown on the weekly Trading View chart.
And with more institutional acquisitions in tokens, settlements, ETFs, and wealth, along with the upcoming split in April 2028, Bitcoin will have enough momentum to take it above $200,000 in 2029.
This rally could soon be followed by another pullback, as seen in Bitcoin price movements every three or four years. After that, it starts the next rally to $250,000 in 2031. As Bitcoin continues to mature, rallies may flatten, and so may reversals.
