2026 Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers to watch

Scottie Scheffler and repeat.

Rory McIlroy and the seventh major crown.

Winning are 40-somethings Justin Rose and Adam Scott.

Everything can be interesting. Everything can be amazing. But if you follow i the story in this year's Open Championship at Royal Birkdale – and if you are influenced by the betting narrative – is Tommy Fleetwood and coming home.

When he was growing up, Fleetwood lived near Birkdale, and he and his father used to sneak out. In 1998 at Birkdale, 7-year-old Fleetwood went to his first Open. Nineteen years later, at the 2017 Open at Birkdale, Fleetwood was the crowd favorite and tied for 27th, and he will be heavily supported again this year, as he seeks his first major victory, in front of his home fans. He's in decent form, too, having won last year's Tour Championship and coming in at No. 9 in the world rankings.

“Probably my biggest dream in this game — to win that tournament,” Fleetwood told GOLF.com's Sean Zak earlier this year — and Zak's full story is well worth your time and can be found here.

With that, members of our staff have created win picks and sleep picks to help you with your weekly picks, whether that's for a low-level fantasy party at the office, or (legally!) a big-money bet at the sportsbook. It is an exciting endeavor for us. Use it as you wish.

Go to our review.

Open Championship expert picks to win, sleepers in 2026

Alan Bastable

To win: Viktor Hovland, +3,300. Hovland has not played well in the big games this year. (He packed his bags Friday for both the PGA Championship and the US Open.) But this week, he's bucking the trend. Not only did he win at the Travelers and tie for 13th at the Scottish, but between his players at Aronimink and Shinnecock, he also tied for third at the Canadian Open. His status as one of the best metal players in the game will be a boon to Birkdale. Time to avenge Norway's defeat to England…

Choosing to sleep: Ryan Fox, +15,000. The guy has a knack for playing tough games, with just two missed cuts in his 14 major starts and top-35 finishes at this year's PGA Championship and US Open. He hasn't missed a cut since early April. I don't see that streak ending this week and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pick up the sack on Sunday.

Adam Christensen

To win: Chris Gotterup, +2,800. Gotterup is one of the most in-form golfers in the world right now. No one has a better season outside of the big leagues, and he's shown the ability to bring his game across the pond. His wide open, tackling stance is unique, and his ability to change the way he plays the ball is incredibly fun to watch. Having a ticket for him when he's in contention going down should be a good time.

Choosing to sleep: Alex Fitzpatrick +6,600. For the second straight major, my sleeper pick would be Fitzpatrick Jr. Royal Birkdale can be punishing off the tee, and his above-average driving accuracy and excellent style of play this season make him an interesting pick at +6,600 for me. He didn't have a good time at the Scottish Open but that allowed him to get to the Open early and maybe that gives him the reset he needs to get into contention.

James Colgan

To win: Tommy Fleetwood, +1,600. He is a popular pick to win this golf tournament, especially not since his hometown is on the rise. Players NEVER win the event they want to win above all others. They NEVER do it in front of all their loved ones. And no, they NEVER won in that setting in their first major game. Okay, have I done enough reverse-jinxing yet? I want this to happen.

Choosing to sleep: Rickie Fowler, +10,000. This could be a very interesting story. And the past 50 years of history of the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale tells us that the winner will be a household name. Rickie is the biggest regular name at +10,000 or worse, so he's the pick.

Alex Gelman

To win: Scottie Scheffler, +750. Scheffler is the favorite to win the Open. After missing the cut last week for the first time in four years, expect the world No. 1 to respond. The price is too good to pass up. If everyone wants to fade Scottie after one bad week, I'll happily bring back the best player in the world.

Choosing to sleep: Jordan Spieth, +6,600. Spieth finds himself just behind. He won the Open nine years ago at Royal Birkdale — why can't he do it again?

Jack Hirsh

To win: Tommy Fleetwood, +1,600. It seems that everyone here will want the best story and that would be Tommy Lad to do it in his hometown. He finally got his first win last year. He was playing with almost anyone without a win this season and ended up burning the putter after a slow start to the year. This can be a great feeling all the time and there is no way I am against it.

Choosing to sleep: Jordan Spieth, +6,600. This choice needs no further explanation. The heart wants what the heart wants.

Jessica Marksbury

To win: Scottie Scheffler, +750. I know, I know. Picking the world No. 1 to win the big one isn't that hard, but I think last week's miss might be helpful for Scottie. Of course, he has nothing to prove and his results speak for themselves this year, but I am sure that more rest will be combined with more competitive fire to result in a big job this week.

Choosing to sleep: Mr Woo Lee, +5,500. Min Woo has been a bit hit and miss this season, with a number of top 10s and top 20s, but he missed the cut at the Masters and the US Open. That said, he is in the midst of one of the most consistent seasons of his career, and having finished second in Scotland last week, I feel he can ride this current wave of positive momentum into contention.

Maddie MacClurg

To win: Tommy Fleetwood, +1,600. Tommy Lad seems to be picky this week. He's playing the best golf of his career with six top-10 finishes this season, and now the Open is in his backyard at Royal Birkdale. He grew up photographing in the murky atmosphere of link studies, and that's exactly the kind of creativity these awards reward. Add a big home crowd behind him, and it feels like everything is in place for Fleetwood to get his hands on the Claret Jug.

Nick Piastowski

To win: Ludwig Aberg, +2,800. He has been solid all year, without putting up a rating. He wins his first medal this week. (And you give me consecutive majors to pick a winner.)

Choosing to sleep: Maverick McNealy, +10,000. These are great odds for a player who missed just one cut this year and is one of the best golfers around.

Josh Schrock

To win: Rory McIlroy +850. My heart tells me to take Tommy, but I keep thinking of Rory in Portrush in 2019, when the home success story was EVERYWHERE, and he blew the OB on the first hole and missed the cut. I don't think Tommy's going to explode, but I don't think he's taking the big monkey off his back this time either. Rory plays good golf, is relaxed, and has been one of the best Open players of the last decade. He handled this Masters victory better than his last and seems really relaxed. Major No. 7 income.

Choosing to sleep: Jordan Spieth, +6,600. He's been consistent this year but actually feels like he's playing his best golf in eight years. I think you are channeling good 2017 vibes and you are competitive. He will see if he can win on Sunday.

Josh Sens

To win: Rory McIlroy, +850. The best player in the world not named Scottie Scheffler is in complete free-roll mode, energy focused entirely on the majors, playing without the weight of unmet expectations. It is surprising that he only won once in this event. Right in his wheelhouse. Here comes number two.

Choosing to sleep: Tom Kim, +4,500. We saw it at Shinnecock. We saw you again last week at the Scottish Open. Kim is in great form and seems unfazed by the big stage. Come to think of it, he seems enthusiastic about it.

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