In its ongoing territorial dispute with Taiwan, China may be looking to the skies as a new way to thwart the island's efforts to build diplomatic ties.
This week, China has been accused of pressuring three African countries – Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar – withdrawing their permission to allow Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te to fly over their territory as he was visiting. Eswatini, Taiwan's only telecommunications affiliate in Africa.
“It's definitely a climb,” Raymond Kuo, vice president for research at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, he told CBC News. “China has always been interested in choosing Taiwan's diplomatic partners, forever. “
It was also the first time that a Taiwanese president had to cancel a foreign trip due to the denial of access to space.
“China is stepping up efforts to block Taiwan's ties with the country by using economic and political influence on smaller countries,” it said. Eyck Freymann, Hoover's colleague at Stanford University and author of the new book Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, in an email to CBC News.
“Its purpose is to completely isolate Taiwan from the world stage so that it cannot react when Beijing attacks by force or force.”
'Due to strong pressure from China'
Taiwan immediately condemned the revocation of the flight permits Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar. Pan Meng-an, the secretary-general of the president, told reporters that the action taken by African countries is “in fact due to strong pressure from the Chinese authorities, including economic coercion. “
He said it is “blatant interference in the internal affairs of other countries, destabilizing the regional situation and hurting the feelings of the Taiwanese people.”
The US State Department also blamed China, saying that the three countries acted at China's request, while Beijing is conducting its “intimidation campaign” against Taiwan and its allies.
China claims that Taiwan is a renegade province, that it can be retaken by force if necessary, and prevents countries with diplomatic relations from maintaining formal relations with Taipei.
Only 12 countries have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
Taiwan's government says it has put its forces on alert as China strengthens its military presence in the Indo-Pacific Ocean and launches air force, navy and missile training on the island.
China's Foreign Ministry did not admit or deny putting pressure on African countries this week, but expressed “deep gratitude” for their action.
It requires moderate coordination
Kuo said it would be surprising if the closure of the airspace was not the result of Chinese pressure.
“Why would any of these countries, let alone all three, say at the same time, 'Yes, we're not going to let this happen,'” he said. “That requires some kind of cooperation to actually make that happen.”
Drew Thompson, a former US government official responsible for managing relations with China and Taiwan, said that this is a new strategy by China. But it also fits well with China's political pressure on Taiwan and its effort to reduce Taiwan's so-called international territory, he said.
Thompson, who is also the chief executive of S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies based in Singapore, said Beijing is lobbying countries around the world to prevent Taiwan from participating in international organizations.
He added that this recent move by China emphasizes that the country has a great impact on small African countries, where it lends heavily and provides favorable payment terms.
If those countries decide to stand up to China, they could call in those debts and create a financial crisis, Thompson said.
“It is a combination of hard and soft power that China is using here in small African countries.”
Rana Mitter, the ST Lee professor of US-Asia relations at the Harvard Kennedy School, pointed out that he US itself has, at times, avoided provoking China over the Taiwan issue.
Last year, as Washington negotiated a trade deal with China, the US reportedly told Taiwan's president to cancel a planned stop in New York while en route to Latin America.
“If the United States is willing to adjust its policy, it is not surprising that other small economies that are heavily dependent on China may do the same thing,” Mitter said.
Mitter said that China's goal is to take Taiwan back without resorting to military tactics, thereby making Taiwan's position in the world more difficult.
He added that the latest strategy could also be China's attempt to woo voters ahead of Taiwan's 2028 presidential election.
Mitter saidd The country of Taiwanthe political situation is such that the President is in office Lai Ching-te he is denied air access by China's allies in Africa, while Cheng Li-wun, chairman of the KMT, the main opposition party, was recently invited to China.
He thinks all of this is meant to send a big signal to Taiwanese voters: that China will make life difficult unless it elects a pro-China leader.
“Of course, the flip side of that is that Taiwanese voters have a history of not liking being told what to do by foreign powers,” Mitter said. “So this is a potentially less productive strategy.”
