Travel Plays for an Affordability Driven Economy

Spending on travel and tourism continues almost unabated. Total travel spending in the US has reached nearly $1.35 trillion by 2025, according to the US Travel Association's Fall 2025 Forecast. Globally, that number reached a historic high of $2.1 trillion.

Baby boomers had the highest cost per trip of all generations. About 23% spent $6,000 or more per trip, according to Phocuswright's 2025 study. By comparison, 17% of millennials and younger travelers and 16% of Gen X reached that same level of spending.

At a time when investors are looking for alternatives outside of trading/artificial intelligence (AI) trading, travel and tourism is one area within the reduced consumer discretionary sector that should be considered. Two of the industry and market leading names are Marriott International NYSE: MAR and Viking Holdings NYSE: VIK.

Affordability: The Canary in the Coal Mine

The word for 2026 may be accessibility. It's front and center for many American consumers heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Much of that debate centers on housing and is reflected in the use of travel for both young adults and young adults.

A recent Bank of America analysis found that spending on babysitting grew 2% over last year, with much of it going to travel and hotels. That is not surprising. About 54% of homeowners of this generation do not have the money to buy a house.

With current mortgage rates still above the sub-4% rates many boomers foreclosed on years ago, there is no financial incentive to sell. Trading up or down will mean swapping a cheaper, fixed-rate mortgage or mortgage for a more expensive one. The result: money that could have gone to transport stays in the household budget, and some of it goes to travel instead.

Before making assumptions about their motivation, it's important to note that baby boomers think about affordability, but in a different way. They may feel comfortable right now, but they are very worried about spending their money.

So, while boomers may bemoan the younger generation's willingness to spend on travel and experience rather than saving for a down payment, they're two sides of the same debate. A person has property that he is afraid of losing. One is afraid that they will never be able to afford those goods, no matter how much they save.

No matter how much consumers view the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, there is no quick fix in the housing market. This is why travel stocks have a long flight path.

Marriott: Priced to Complete Ahead of Q2 Profit

The power of the Marriott brand is undeniable. Despite national concerns, the company presented a strong Q1 2026 earnings report, with revenue of $6.65 billion, and beat consensus adjusted earnings per share (EPS) by 7% to $2.72. The company also guided for adjusted EPS of $3.03 in Q2. That includes what Marriott predicts will be a 50% decline in RevPAR in the Middle East.

A number that really highlights the case for credit card payment revenue, forecast to grow by 35% by 2026. This is a cash flow that no hotel competitor can match on this scale.

If investors are to deal with anything, it will be a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 38x. Also, MAR is only trading about 6% below its consensus price of $384.73. Marriott already has a lot of good news.

That makes the company's upcoming earnings call on August 3, a “confirm, don't surprise” event rather than a catalyst. For income-focused investors, the quarterly dividend, which was recently raised to 73 cents per share, provides a cushion that a growth case alone does not.

Viking: Booking Inflection Points in Multi-Decade Growth

Viking is also one of the strongest growth stories in the travel industry. The company's Q1 2026 EPS came in at 11 cents per share, matching estimates. This is a typical seasonal loss for a boat operator between sailing seasons.

The most important number is the booking opinion of the company:

• 2026 is already 92% booked, with advance bookings of $6.2 billion, up 13% year-on-year.

• 2027 is already 38% booked, with advance bookings at $3.4 billion, up 31% year-on-year.

That shows a customer base that has both the means and the tendency to keep bookings regardless of monthly economic data. Add in the 15% significant capacity growth planned for 2027, and new river, ocean, and cruise ships coming online, and Viking's growing runway looks pretty long.

Analysts largely agree with this. However, VIK is trading roughly in line with its consensus price of $100.17. That means Viking will have to convince investors when it reports earnings on August 18. Investors will want to see continued strength in the company's bookings track.

Same Trade, Different Time Horizon

Both Marriott and Viking ultimately play the same hand: the affluent consumer who continues to spend on travel because housing has boxed them in. However, each one monetizes that behavior in a different way.

Marriott collects its revenue and occupancy benefits once in a while, with a cash model that is already reflected in its price. Viking collects its revenue and profits years in advance by using a booking curve that the market may not fully price.

None of these stocks are bad buys as long as the broader economic picture doesn't deteriorate. It can come down to targeting. Marriott is a blue-chip name that pays dividends, which may be large enough to overcome objections about its high valuation.

In contrast, Viking has shown significant growth since going public in 2024. The company's booking forecasts show no sign of that growth slowing down, which is why VIK could be a better option for investors looking for long-term growth.

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