In a world where the combined value of the media rights of the major North American sports leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL) exceeds $15 billion annually, bargain hunters should beware. The 2026 World Cup could be the last sports broadcast deal available at a real discount. And that could be the first domino in Hollywood's problematic response.
Back in 2015, FOX found out to expand US World Cup rights this year with less money. However, this is precisely why the next round of negotiations is expected to produce fireworks. Sports rights are the last vestige of consistent mass audience appeal in linear television and the best way to engage high-risk subscribers and ad-supported segments in broadcasting. But with every new envy-inducing deal that comes to the fore, the entertainment ecosystem is forced to make a deal.
How Fox started the deal of the century
The 2022 World Cup final between France and Argentina was watched by around 1.5 million people. So how in the world is Fox only paying $485 million for this year's US-hosted tournament when the rights are estimated to be worth more than three times that amount?
Over the past decades, FIFA has built a reputation as a financial shark always on the hunt for the best food. In doing so, it was agreed in 2014 to host the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the New York Times report. However, the hot weather did not match the usual schedule of the summer tournament. So FIFA gave Fox a rights deal until 2026 so it wouldn't challenge the change, when the broadcast network knew the World Cup would have to compete with the NFL, College Football and the NBA. It's just permission that has turned into a ridiculously large amount in the present day.
Neither FIFA nor Fox knew 10 years ago that the 2026 games would be held in the US with an expanded list of 48 teams, following years of domestic football growth and a ballooning market for live sports rights. All these things turned this year's games into the deal of the century. However, it has become a platform for huge price increases in the upcoming World Cup discussions in line with the latest sports broadcasting methods.
The value of the World Cup has exploded because networks and stadiums are desperate for events that draw tens of millions of viewers to justify high advertising rates. Most of the “good stuff” has moved to broadcast, and the attention is more scattered than the San Andreas Fault (yes, I just dropped the geology joke).
Scarcity, FOMO, impulse purchases and other factors have created a consistent trend: viewers are it is very possible to buy the advertised product while watching a live eventlike a sporting event. The annual expenditure on advertisements for sporting events is expected to reach approx $25 billion in 2030. That's it a lot of money—and that's not the only background that makes World Cup discussions so fascinating. The latest data from the Antenna proves that a live spectacle like Netflix's NFL broadcast always attracts a larger share of “light viewers,” or families who watch less in a certain area, than the original. That is powerful.
Some sports markets are famous for going in the opposite direction. The best example is professional football. The NFL's combined annual rights are currently worth about $10 billion, which includes 31 percent of all sports media rights and 8 percent of all content usage (film, TV, sports rights, etc.), Status Screens. Amid ongoing negotiations, that amount is expected to rise by another $6 billion or more in the next round of deals. That's all well and good for the NFL, but all that new money has to come from somewhere. This is where the rub lies.
The real cost of sports deals
Every penny extra used NFL, World Cup, NBA, College Football and UFC is money taken from the budget of another category. For the average person, that means less money to roam around in other systems.
The NFL's price hike is expected to result in an estimate A reduction of 7 percent in scripted TV, film and other content distribution. In the words of Puck News' John OurandThe NFL's new media deals “are widely expected to siphon billions from the pool of revenue available for smaller sports venues, not to mention Hollywood's entertainment budgets.” He describes it as a “blast radius.”
This shifts economic reality from hypothetical bean counting to tangible winners and losers. In theory, this could prevent the Disney world from delivering the next one Shogun. This speaks little to a drop in Netflix original volume as the broadcaster distributes more money to sports: more NFL games, WWE, MLB opening night, Home Run Derby game and Field of Dreams, FIFA Women's World Cup 2027 and 2031, fighting games, etc. Why spend huge sums of money on original question marks when the sport delivers a guaranteed guarantee?
Fox has apparently won the 2026 World Cup negotiations and will reap huge benefits as a result. But after taking this lump, FIFA is well placed for the future. A fox you know its century agreement is on borrowed time. NBC knows what World Cup property is it should be importance. So are Amazon, Apple and Netflix.
The next round of negotiations will be conducted with the media landscape of the 2030s firmly within the scope of the collaborative negotiations. That world is defined by the scarcity, high demand and growing number of live sports rights. This could be the last transaction in sports for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, that may mean Hollywood needs to worry about what it will be forced to give up to fund the next round of media deals.
