Palantir Technologies NASDAQ: PLTR delivered a blockbuster Q1 2026 earnings report after the market closed on May 4. But revenue growth of 85% year-on-year (YOY) and a Rule of 40 score of 145%, among other highlights, were not enough to excite investors. PLTR fell 7% the day after the report.
Palantir Technologies Today
Palantir Technologies
- 52 week interval
- $105.32
▼
$207.52
- The P/E ratio
- 215.35
- Target Value
- $194.25
A predictable concern was the company's valuation. The company posted earnings per share of 33 cents. That was 5 cents above the estimate of 28 cents. The number was also up 153% YOY. On a GAAP basis, the earnings beat was even more impressive. GAAP EPS of 32 cents was up 325% YOY.
To put that in even better perspective, Palantir's CEO, Dr. Alex Karp, noted this in its letter to shareholders, “In fact, we made almost as much profit in the first quarter of the year as we did in revenue in just the last twelve months.”
This is the key to aligning the PLTR price. Analysts predict earnings growth of around 43% by 2026. The company is in a position to do much better than that. But critics of Palantir's valuation need only be right once. And at least on the day after the payday, the momentum was on their side.
Government and Commercial Growth Both Accelerating—An Extraordinary Double
As in the past few years, Palantir has registered strong growth in both the government and commercial sides of its business. US commercial revenue grew 133% YOY to $595 million, and US government revenue grew 84% YOY to $687 million.
It's hard to understate the importance of this growth, as Palantir's critics often continue to miss the bigger growth story happening on the commercial side of the business. The company was born out of its business with the US government, but it has become much more than that.
As the numbers show, both sides of the business continue to grow and grow exponentially. In fact, Palantir raised its full-year outlook for revenue and profit. That's surprising after the quarter just posted.
Wall Street Raises Targets While Burry Shorts CEO
The real sign of Palantir's investors comes from the analyst community. Dan Ives of Wedbush was quick to reiterate its Outperform rating and $230 price target for PLTR. Rosenblatt Securities reiterated a buy rating and raised its price target from $200 to $225.
Palantir Technologies Stock Forecast today
$194.25
changed +42.68%.Buy Medium
Based on 31 Analyst Ratings
| Current Price | $136.14 |
|---|---|
| High Forecast | $255.00 |
| Average prediction | $194.25 |
| Low Prognosis | $90.00 |
Palantir Technologies Stock Forecast Details
It's worth noting that some analysts have been lowering their price targets on the stock. But in any case, it will confirm the diversity-bound situation that has existed for most of this year. There's more news from one of Palantir's favorite bears, Michael Burry, who says he's now completely missing PLTR. However, Burry said he's not just shorting the stock based on the valuation, “he's shorting the business model. I'm shorting every criterion the company depends on. I'm shorting the CEO.”
This is a continuation of the dispute that has existed between Burry and Karp since the end of 2025 when Burry announced that he has issued options against PLTR. The stock is down more than 20% in 2026, and institutional sales outpaced purchases in the first quarter. Some would say that proves Burry right. Others may refer to a broken clock.
Is Palantir Being Punished for Its Past Success?
Palantir's reality in 2026 is different than it was a few years ago. Investors who expect the stock to rise 550% over the next five years, as it has over the past five years, will likely be disappointed. The company has a lot of growth that has value in it.
But that doesn't mean it's not worth the premium rating. Institutions will continue to own PLTR, and analysts (with some exceptions) continue to raise their price targets. It is likely that PLTR will continue to chart in 2026 while investors sort out the winners and losers in the AI software space.
But as was the case in 2021 and 2022, that patience will likely be rewarded by retail investors, many of whom are not content to hold the stock after taking their initial investment.
Eye Tests Still Matter—And Palantir Passes
Palantir is a victim of a self-fulfilling prophecy. At this point, critics have nothing else to say but to weigh in, and they are sure that at some point, that will be reflected in the stock price.
I won't argue the math with anyone. That's like debating metrics like expected batting average or WAR+ with baseball purists.
But in sports, like investing, an eye exam is still important. Palantir won't cut it for investors who only focus on accounting. There are plenty of other stocks to own and still sleep at night.
However, an eye exam is mandatory. Look at it this way. If you had one player to send to the plate with one at-bat during a “must have”, there are many players that come to mind that would not check the boxes as a good hitter. But will you bet against them yet? Probably not.
That analogy works for Palantir on two levels. Palantir not only met this era, it crushed it. In addition, it suggested that there is strong growth ahead, which seems unlikely. And it would be doubtful, except that Palantir has continued to impress quarter after quarter.
But it also shows what Palantir means to its customers on both the commercial and business sides. They rely on Palantir's Ontology to deliver insights they can't get any other way.
It is not a valuation dear. Its business model is misunderstood and, in some cases, misrepresented. But investors waiting for PLTR to get analysts' stamp of approval will be kept waiting. Meanwhile, the stock is likely to move higher in the long term.
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