California voters want to know who won the election. Waiting can be 'frustrating, even annoying'

After the 2022 Los Angeles primary, developer Rick Caruso looked to have a surprising, big, lead in the position of US Rep. Karen Bass.

The morning after polls closed, Caruso was ahead by 5 percentage points – 42% to Bass' 37% – and the former Republican called the early results “a story of victory.”

But that lead did not last as the counting of votes continued. When all the votes were tallied two weeks after election day, Bass was leading, with 43% of the vote compared to Caruso's 36%.

Welcome to the slog of post-election vote counting in California, where tight races often go uncalled for even when early results seem clear.

The California governor's race is still not called, although Republican Steve Hilton was the top vote-getter and Democrat Xavier Becerra came in second from election night. The same is true of the battle over who will face Bass in the mayoral race: reality TV actor Spencer Pratt, who is in second place, or LA City Council Member Nithya Raman, who is in third place.

At this point in the polls, “everyone has an opinion and very few facts” about what the results will be, said Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist.

“No one in politics wants to be patient,” Murphy said, adding that California has “adopted a slow and deliberate plan.”

It's not the only LA mayoral race where mail-in ballots have changed election results. Some contests, including those for Orange County's hotly contested congressional districts and LA City Council seats, came down to the narrowest of margins that changed long after Election Day.

On election night in November 2024, just over 1,000 votes separate Democrat Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh in their bid for the 47th District, with Baugh enjoying a narrow lead.

But, in the end, as more votes were counted, Min moved forward. He ended up winning with about 10,000 votes.

Similarly, in the race between Democrat Derek Tran and then-incumbent Michelle Steel to represent Congressional District 45, it took until Nov. 27 to determine that Tran won the contest by just over 650 votes.

In 2022, the race between then-incumbent Gil Cedillo and activist Eunisses Hernandez for the LA City Council was also unsettled. On election day, Cedillo was leading with 56% of the vote. But after two weeks, Hernandez ended up leading with 54% of the vote to Cedillo's 46%.

Experts say that determining the last place in the mayoral race could take several days, depending on how close the race is and how many votes have yet to be counted. Only about 62% of the votes in the city of Los Angeles have been counted as of Thursday morning.

“In the remaining 40 percent, or the remaining, there may still be a chance for a significant return of the leftist vote, which could really benefit Raman,” said Pete Peterson, dean of the School of Public Policy at Pepperdine University.

Recent results favor Democrats — as seen in the 2022 Bass-Caruso race — as Democrats tend to be more likely to vote by mail, a system that accepts ballots up to seven days after Election Day as long as they are marked by that Tuesday. And this year, Democratic voters are withholding their votes for a long time amid a volatile gubernatorial race, which could significantly improve that situation.

“The big difference between '26 and '22, you had two students versus three,” Peterson said. “Statistically, it's a different situation.”

Three experts interviewed by The Times said Raman still has a chance to overtake Pratt, but it seems more likely that Pratt will survive and challenge Bass in November.

The remaining votes to be counted, even if they lean heavily to the left, will likely be split between Raman and Bass, meaning Raman needs to outdo not only Pratt but also Bass to make this comeback happen, Peterson said.

He called his chances of ousting Pratt “very remote … but not likely.”

In LA County, the registrar of voters reported late Wednesday that officials estimate they still have about 713,000 ballots to be processed and counted, including mostly mail-in ballots written on Election Day but not yet received, as well as ballots returned to drop boxes and polling centers on Election Day. The Registrar only did statewide polls, which include a larger pool of voters than the city of LA that will decide the mayor's race.

Kamy Akhavan, executive director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, said there is a prevailing view among analysts that the votes cast later will be more progressive, meaning they will be more friendly to Raman.

“Whether they have enough to tilt the result in favor of Raman taking the second place, right now, it seems unlikely,” he said.

Pratt comes from the same electorate in Los Angeles that voted for President Trump and may capture a few other voters who are angry about the state of the city. But his lead could shrink slightly as more Democrats vote, Murphy said.

“Nithya, she's probably going to go up because there's going to be an even number of Democratic votes and she's going to get her share, but is she going to catch Pratt? You can put it another way,” Murphy said.

A similar shift to the left also occurred as more votes were counted in November 2022 when Bass and Caruso faced off in the general election. The results on the night of the election changed between the two candidates, but the next morning Caruso had a narrow result with 51.25% of the votes. Bass sits at 48.75%.

Caruso maintained his lead – although it continued to shrink – as the week progressed, but by Saturday, Bass had moved ahead with 50.78% of the vote. Caruso dropped to 49.22%.

His momentum continued to grow as more votes were being processed. Eight days after polls closed the following week, the Associated Press called the race for Bass. At the time, he led Caruso by six points with 53% of the vote.

The final tally would have him winning around 55% of the vote.

California officials have worked to dispel rumors and lies about slow election results — explaining that it's part of the process of accurately counting and verifying votes, especially those sent by mail — even as there has been a growing push to speed up results to build voter confidence.

The process has been especially slow in LA County, though experts say that's largely a result of the large voter base. Mail-in ballots are also heavily scrutinized by staff who verify signatures and give voters a chance to correct the situation if their signature doesn't match, a time-consuming process.

“They use that level of care because they have to — that's their protocol — and because it can make a big difference,” Akhavan said. “We've seen some elections in Southern California being decided by single digits. And that means this is going to take time. That can be very frustrating, upsetting for Angelenos.”