Climate change, El Niño makes the weather worse, economic losses, experts warn

Climate experts have warned that a strong El Niño developing alongside human-caused global warming is expected to intensify heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, food insecurity, and economic losses around the world, with vulnerable communities facing some of the worst impacts.

During an online forum titled “Fuel on Fire: Reporting El Niño and the Real Costs of Climate Change” organized by the environmental group 350.org on Wednesday, climate scientists and policy experts said the combination of climate change and El Niño is increasing extreme weather conditions and increasing risks to public health, agriculture, livelihoods, and economies in all disaster-prone regions and the state. weather.

A meteorologist from the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) and director of research, and coordinator of Climameter, David Faranda, said that El Niño is a natural weather pattern characterized by the heating of the waters of the tropical Pacific, but its effects are magnified by the increase in global temperatures caused by the release of greenhouse gases.

“We already have 1.4 degrees Celsius of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to this, we will add 0.25 degrees Celsius on a global scale from El Niño,” said Mr Faranda.

He said research by Climameter and other scientific agencies shows that climate change is increasing extreme weather events, including heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes, hurricanes and heavy rain.

“The question of attribution science is no longer whether adverse weather conditions are enhanced or exacerbated by climate change, but to what extent,” said Mr. Faranda.

A recent study by Climameter found that the June heat wave in Western Europe was up to 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer due to climate change, while similar studies are underway on recent heat waves in North America.

Mr. Faranda said El Niño is expected to increase global temperatures and increase the effects of severe weather that is already being exacerbated by climate change.

In the Caribbean, the effects of El Niño are already being felt through droughts, water shortages, extreme heat, and disease outbreaks, said Caribbean geologist and water resources expert Amira Quiñones during the forum.

“The Caribbean is clearly at the forefront of the climate crisis,” Ms Quiñones said.
He said 82% of Puerto Rico is already dealing with drought conditions, which is why some communities are being given water. During the previous El Niño-related drought in 2015, many households received water only twice a week.

“The measurement of water is not just a nuisance, it is a health problem,” said Ms. Quiñones.

He added that temperatures in some parts of Puerto Rico recently reached temperatures of up to 43 degrees Celsius, while the countries of the Greater Antilles experienced daily temperatures of more than 38 degrees Celsius.

Ms. Quiñones also warned that drought and warm temperatures could exacerbate outbreaks of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, while unusually warm seas contribute to massive sargassum blooms that affect tourism, fishing, and coastal life.

“The Caribbean contributes only a small amount of global emissions, yet it is experiencing some of the worst impacts,” he said.

Shel Winkley, senior engagement specialist and chief meteorologist at Climate Central, said rising ocean temperatures are increasing the likelihood and severity of severe weather around the world.

“Climate change is a really big thing here,” said Mr. Winkley. “The base temperature is like a plate. Climate change is the icing on the cake and El Niño is basically the frosting on top.”

According to Climate Central's Climate Shift Index, many oceans are experiencing abnormal temperatures made more likely by human-caused climate change.

Mr. Winkley said sea temperatures in parts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean have become 100 to 500 times more likely to occur due to climate change, making for stronger hurricanes.

He also highlighted the growing health risks posed by extreme heat and humidity, noting that climate change has doubled the number of hot, humid days worldwide since the 1970s.

“Night temperatures during the summer months are almost twice as warm as daytime temperatures,” said Mr. Winkley, adding that warm nights reduce the body's ability to recover from daytime heat stress.

According to Gareth Redmond-King, head of international programs at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), the economic consequences of climate change are also becoming increasingly apparent,
Mr. Redmond-King cited projections from the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries showing that the current climate could reduce gross domestic product over the course of this century.

He also noted that African countries already lose between 2% and 5% of their GDP annually due to the impact of climate while spending up to 9% of their national budget to deal with climate-related disasters.

“Climate change is at the heart of the cost of living problem,” said Mr. Redmond-King.

He pointed to the increase in food prices caused by extreme heat, drought, floods, and plant diseases affecting major agricultural regions around the world. Climate change has added an estimated £360 (about ₱27,700) to the UK's average household consumption in 2022 and 2023, he said.

Mr. Redmond-King added that climate-related heat stress has cost agricultural workers billions of hours of work and is increasing food security risks worldwide through lower crop yields, migration, and supply chain disruptions.

“Climate disasters kill people, destroy crops, and damage infrastructure in the short term. In the medium term, they pose a serious threat to our global food system,” he said.

Speakers said the negative impact of climate change underscores the need for strong mitigation and adaptation measures, warning that communities that contribute the least to global pollution are often among those facing the greatest climate-related risks.

“We know we can't do anything about El Niño, but we know we have only one scientific solution to stop climate change, which is to reduce our emissions to zero,” said Mr Redmond-King. – Kaizzer Angela Marie V. Manuba