Despite the rise in energy prices and the tension in the country, the demand for travel remains strong as the summer begins. The US Travel Association projects inflation-adjusted travel costs to grow 1% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, with US outbound travel growing again due to the World Cup. Earlier this month, CoStar and Tourism Economics upgraded its forecast for US RevPAR (revenue per available room) to 2.8% year-over-year (YOY) following a figure of 4.0% in Q1 2026, the highest quarterly RevPAR number on record.
Naturally, the tourism industry is booming, right? Not so fast, my friend. Hotel stocks are making new gains, but airline, cruise line, and other travel stocks still lag both the broader market and their hotel industry peers. Why is one subsector winning big while the rest of the industry lags behind? Well, the answer lies in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil is the most critical resource for the tourism industry
Oil prices have been pushed above $90 a barrel since early March when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. High electricity prices have depressed consumers, but demand for travel remains strong. However, oil has become a filter in the tourism industry, and the market is re-evaluating the sector based on fuel exposure to revenue, not raw demand.
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Airlines: Fuel is one of the three largest cost items for any airline, and airline fuel prices always increase the airline's profitability. Rating of the company US Global Jets ETF NYSE: JETS down more than 2% year-to-date (YTD), and the best-performing airline stock, Delta Air Lines Inc. NYSE: DALand it is the most fenced as it has a refinery.
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Online Travel Companies (OTAs): OTAs are not restricted from transporting oil although they do not have fuel costs. Picked-up travelers are eschewing international travel for cheaper domestic travel that lowers overall spending and reduces OTA revenue. Airlines can also mitigate rising fuel costs by reducing commissions paid to OTAs for their listings. Company Booking Holdings Inc. NASDAQ: BKNGthe largest publicly traded OTA, is down more than 25% YTD.
It's not hard to see why hotels have over-performed. Hotels are in the best position to capitalize on travel demand because they don't have to pay for fuel costs. And some industry leaders aren't even paying off real estate loans.
2 Hotel Stocks Set New Highs This Summer
The three hotel stocks listed here all share a common theme: the franchise business model. Under this model, the hotel owner bears all cyclical risks, including the cost of housing, labor, depreciation, insurance, and utilities. The brand collects a percentage of gross room revenue and other fees, and allows operators to use their names and access their booking and loyalty engines. A capital-light system with a recurring profit is perfect for a big shock, which is why these stocks have risen so high this year.
Marriott: Machine Firing on All Cylinders
Marriott International Today
Marriott International
As of 06/12/2026 04:00 PM Eastern
- 52 week interval
- $253.55
▼
$403.25
- Dividend Yield
- 0.73%
- The P/E ratio
- 42.24
- Target Value
- $382.07
The non-RevPAR revenue stream is what has set Marriott International Inc. NYSE: MAR apart from its peers.
Card payments rose 37% YOY in Q1 2026, and management raised full-year revenue guidance to $5.93 billion to $5.99 billion.
The pipe is also strong; a record 618,000 rooms, 43% of which are under construction. Q2 RevPAR guidance was also raised to the upper 2.5% range.
MAR shares are also enjoying strong technical momentum. The 50-day moving average has provided support for almost a year, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows increasing bullish momentum. The fundamentals and the technical ensure the same story, and that's going forward.
Hilton: The Hotel Industry's Cleanest Combination
Hilton Worldwide Today
Hilton Worldwide
- 52 week interval
- $241.45
▼
$349.03
- Dividend Yield
- 0.17%
- The P/E ratio
- 52.85
- Target Value
- $348.55
The growth of the whole unit is the reason for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. NYSE: HLT. The company reported the opening of 131 new hotels during its Q1 2026 earnings release, with industry-leading unit growth of 6.3%.
Hilton is targeting 6-7% unit growth for the full year, and is confident enough in this projection to increase RevPAR growth despite the headwinds in the Middle East. System-wide RevPAR of 3.6% was expected, and a record 527,000 rooms are currently on track.
HLT shares have traded lower since early April, but remain up more than 15% YTD, and there is evidence that the next leg of the rally is just around the corner. Support remains strong at the 50-day moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now back in bullish territory.
The stock trades at a lofty 37 times multiple, but the growth rate and cash flow ($3.5 billion in buybacks and dividends planned for 2026) command attention.
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