For Putin, Victory Day was a time for Russia to show its strength. This year, it will look weak

As tanks roared through Moscow's Red Square during the Victory Day parade last May, Russian President Vladimir Putin proudly displayed himself flanked by more than two dozen world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping.

This year, most of the political VIPs will be absent. So are all the military vehicles and many students from Russian military colleges.

The border of the marching troops on Saturday has been lifted and postponed, and some Victory Day events near the Russian borders have been canceled altogether.

During his time as president, Putin has turned Victory Day, the May 9 celebration in which Russia marks the defeat of Nazi Germany, into a military spectacle. The parade was an opportunity for the Kremlin to put on a grand display of pride and power and serve as a hub for the community to come together.

But this year, amid Ukrainian drone attacks on regions across the country, Victory Day has been downplayed, and with it, Putin's image has arguably diminished.

“It imagines that something is wrong,” said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter based in Israel who spoke to CBC News by phone.

“We all know how sacred this day is…. If [Putin] cannot protect the capital during the parade, on this holy day, something has collapsed.”

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, said “All measures are taken to reduce the risk” and accused Kyiv of “terrorist activity” against Russia.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump said Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had agreed to his request for a three-day ceasefire and a prisoner exchange, adding that such a ceasefire would be the “beginning of the end” of the long war between them.

The ceasefire will run from Saturday until Monday and will mark the anniversary of the end of the Second World War for the Russian people, Trump said.

Victory Day comes amid challenges for Russia, and for Putin, whose popularity has plummeted, according to polls.

In recent weeks, Russian energy facilities have been repeatedly targeted by drones in Ukraine and the country's economy decreases under weak growth. Increasing internet restrictions are harassing businesses and fueling public frustration.

After more than four years of its war in Ukraine and hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Kremlin is nowhere near ending its “special military operation” with a major victory or a political settlement.

Fear of drones

On the streets of Moscow, drone security units armed with automatic weapons and special identification systems have been deployed.

On Monday, a luxury high-rise building in the capital was hit by a plane, and during the night of Thursday and Friday, the Ministry of Defense of Russia said that it intercepted 264 Ukrainian drones that were aimed at many regions across the country.

On Friday morning, Ukrainian security forces said they had struck Lukoil in Perm, Russia, for the second day in a row.

Earlier, the Kremlin tried to prevent attacks on Victory Day by publicly announcing a two-day ceasefire.

Zelenskyy dismissed the proposal as “strange and inappropriate,” since Moscow started the war by launching its offensive on Feb. 24, 2022, and refused to agree to the 30-day ceasefire plan proposed by the US.

Exchange of prisoners of war

On Friday, Zelenskyy confirmed that a three-day truce had been arranged with Russia as part of US efforts to negotiate an end to the war. Writing in Telegram, Zelenskyy also said that the two sides would be ⁠⁠—exchange 1,000 prisoners of war.

Russia also agreed to a three-day ceasefire and a prisoner exchange, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Friday.

Zelenskyy also issued a statement on Friday “allowing” the Victory Day parade to continue and ensuring that no weapons were aimed at Red Square.

In an attempt to slow down Ukrainian air traffic heading into Saturday's event, Russian officials had previously announced that the internet, as well as SMS messaging, would be “cut off” in the capital on Saturday, following the end of the week.

Despite complaints from businesses about how the outage affected their sales, a Kremlin spokesman said there would be no compensation as “people's safety is a priority.”

Internet restrictions apply to websites on the Russian government's “whitelist,” a group of government-sanctioned online services that are kept available during normal connection outages. Home Internet and Wi-Fi will not be affected, authorities said.

“A military parade is meant to show strength and courage, but if it gets caught wrong… and the internet is full of it [to reduce the chances of a Ukrainian attack drone being able to navigate to the site]it shows nothing but fear and weakness,” wrote Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a Berlin-based think tank. analysis this week.

Sudden interruption of mobile internet

The latest outage comes after weeks of sudden internet outages in the capital and coincides with the government's plan to increase its restrictions on the country's digital space by targeting VPNs, or virtual private networks, which Russians often use to access blocked sites.

Galyamov, who was declared a foreign agent after leaving Russia and added to the government's wanted list in 2023 for commenting on the war in Ukraine, said he was in regular contact with Russians on social media who said frustration was mounting.

“The atmosphere is very gloomy,” he said anger and negative feelings, not only towards Putin, but towards Putin himself. “

Galyamov said that Putin, whose public appearances have never been spontaneous and always well-planned, has withdrawn from public life and rarely speaks to the country despite widespread discontent.

He believes that fear may be part of the reason. The Kremlin has failed to get the US administration completely on its side over the war in Ukraine, and will be watching how Washington treats some of Moscow's one-time allies.

The leader of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro was quickly arrested by US special forces earlier this year, and former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike in February.

Reports of increased security around Putin

CNN and the Financial Times recently reported on a leaked document from a European intelligence agency that concluded security had been tightened around Putin after a wave of assassinations of senior Russian military officials. CBC News has not yet obtained a copy of the intelligence report.

But Galyamov said that Putin's lack of communication with the public may be motivated by the fact that he does not know what to say to stop the criticism that is seen in the public and on the Internet.

“Earlier, it was clear to everyone that Putin almost never makes a mistake … he knows how to mobilize resources, use all available resources to succeed, so let him decide,” said Galyamov.

“Now people feel that way [Putin] he can be wrong and he can lose, so why should we let him decide?”

Last month, Victoria Bonya, a popular Russian blogger and former TV star who lives in Monaco, posted a video on Instagram urging Putin to fix the problems in Russian society.

“People are afraid of you,” he told Putin in the video. “There is a big wall between people and you.”

The video has been viewed tens of millions of times and has been featured on daily Russian news programs.

Other videos on social media have received little attention, but include criticism of the government's handling of the economy and strengthening the hand of the authorities online.

In an exclusive interview, Washington Post he spoke to a Kremlin lawyer turned broadcaster who attacked Putin viciously, calling him a criminal we should remove.

“Inevitably, the number of internal conflicts is increasing,” said Galyamov.

“[Putin] he still wants to find the Donba, he still wants to fight and he still feels that the West is the enemy, but all these things have stopped uniting people. “